Vancouver host LAFC in CCL
An all-MLS CCL tie for ya in the quarterfinals. Kickoff is set for 10 pm ET on FS1, TUDN and OneSoccer.
Philadelphia go up 1-0 in CCL
A late penalty from Dániel Gazdag put the Union up 1-0 on 10-man Atlas. They’ll take that slight lead into the away leg next week.
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Let’s be real. Vancouver are the underdog here. Any non-Seattle, non-Philly team is going to be an underdog over two legs against the reigning MLS Cup and Supporters’ Shield winners. That’s not a jab at the ‘Caps, it’s the proper respect for what LAFC has done over the last year. This is an outstanding soccer team with no apparent weak points. Vancouver have a massive task ahead of them.
But gaps can only get so wide between MLS teams. Let alone MLS teams meeting in a CCL quarterfinal. A Vancouver win isn’t probable but it’s absolutely plausible. So let’s make a case for that timeline coming into existence. Honestly, it won’t be that hard.
Vancouver’s underlying numbers are good!
Ok, yeah, I’ve said over and over again that you shouldn’t worry about expected goals until at least game eight, and more preferably game 10. But we’re not here to play by the established frameworks. Because the established frameworks tell us that LAFC are going to win.
Which means I should let you know that, per American Soccer Analysis, Vancouver have a higher expected points total. Basically, all things being equal and based on the chances you create and allow, the ‘Caps should have an equal or greater amount of points than LAFC.
I should also let you know that if the game is at an even scoreline and neither team is chasing a goal, Vancouver have a better expected goal differential than LAFC. And I should also let you know that the ‘Caps are third in MLS in total expected goal differential, which is still two spots behind first-place LAFC. But still… third!
The Whitecaps have, at the very least, been better than their results so far. At this point, they just need to learn how to actually capitalize on having an early lead. They’ve blown leads in multiple games and missed out on points more often than not this regular season. To be fair though…
Vancouver can win big!
Vancouver got to this point in CCL by thumping Honduran side Real España. I mean just exploding them into tiny little bits in the first round. They won 5-0 in the first leg of the tie and then added a couple more goals in the second leg for good measure.
Last weekend, they brought out the beatdown sticks again as they clobbered CF Montréal 5-0. They can pile it on when they need to.
Now, the point here isn’t that Vancouver are going to win 5-0. It’s just to remind you that, when they’re on, they can play some really good ball. Really good ball against LAFC doesn’t result in a 5-0 win, but it can result in some kind of win. They’ll take whatever they can get tonight.
Simon Becher doesn’t have tape!
Part of that 5-0 win over CF Montréal stemmed from the fact that young striker Simon Becher may perhaps be the greatest striker in the history of soccer. And even if he’s not actually, he provides a new element to Vancouver’s game. He and fellow forward Brian White work well together and the two-forward set-up is something that LAFC won’t be used to. That could be tough to handle! It might at least be enough to ambush LAFC early. Look, Becher is averaging a goal every 30 minutes or so at this point, so you have to think the ‘Caps are getting at least three from him tonight. They’d take one, but three is on the table.
LAFC do not have a Julian Gressel!
Julian Gressel has legitimately been one of the single most effective players in MLS since he entered the league in 2017, and we don’t talk about that enough. Vancouver have Julian Gressel. LAFC do not have Julian Gressel. Advantage Vancouver.
Will that be enough of an advantage to give the ‘Caps a win? It’s tough to see it right now. But a Vanni Sartini team always feels dangerous in “no one believes in us” scenarios. This is a picture-perfect version of that scenario. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Whitecaps come out at their very best and put a shock into LAFC. At least for a while.
- Joe Lowery picked out five big questions MLS teams must answer.
- Tom “ScoopConn Huskies” Bogert looked at which Eastern Conference clubs have DP and/or U22 Initiative flexibility.
- The MLS Disciplinary Committee fined two players after Matchday 6.
- Take a look at which teams advanced to the Round of 16 at the Generation adidas Cup.
- Power Rankings.
Good luck out there. Get to where you want to go.
