The Daily Kickoff

Your Thursday Kickoff: How to (maybe) beat Philadelphia and LAFC

J. Sam Jones

What you need to know

Portland Timbers sign head coach Giovanni Savarese to long-term extension

The Portland Timbers have signed head coach Giovanni Savarese to a long-term contract extension. Savarese’s new deal keeps him with Portland through at least the 2025 MLS season, with a club option year in 2026. Next season will be his sixth on the Timbers' sidelines.

Columbus Crew announce roster moves

The Columbus Crew announced their end-of-season roster decisions. Columbus declined the contract option on longtime winger-turned-fullback Pedro Santos, while winger Derrick Etienne Jr. is out of contract. Etienne is eligible for free agency and is likely to draw plenty of interest from other clubs. The Crew noted they remain in discussions with some players about potential returns, though didn't specify which ones. Columbus picked up options for key players like Darlington Nagbe, Jonathan Mensah, Steven Moreira and Artur – while stars Lucas Zelarayan and Cucho Hernandez were under contract – keeping the core intact heading into 2023.

Real Salt Lake announce roster moves

Real Salt Lake have 26 players under contract for 2023 after announcing their end-of-season roster update. There might be a few more from last year's team back as well. Former USMNT forward Bobby Wood saw his contract option declined. He had only 5g/2a in 31 appearances over two seasons with RSL. Center back Marcelo Silva is out of contract, and Sergio Cordova's loan expired, but the club is in talks about both returning.

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Hey so how do you beat these guys?

The last couple of days we’ve obviously been focused on both conference finals. What I’ve really discovered in those days of research is that holy smokes LAFC and Philadelphia are both incredible in like every single category. I genuinely can’t list them all, but I can tell you that my self-made, kind of crude but still reliable formula for assessing a team’s value via their underlying and surface numbers would have either team as the third-best team to win MLS Cup since 2013. That’s behind only the 2014 LA Galaxy and 2018 Atlanta. Basically, they’re really, really good.

So good, it’s fair to ask: Are there any weak points? Like at all? Well…honestly, not really. But that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable. As best as we can, let’s try to map out a path to beating two of the best teams in MLS history via data, vibes, and/or the power of self-assurance.

How to (maybe) beat Philadelphia

I’m not going to lie. Statistically, there’s not really a category that shows up as a weakness relative to the rest of the league. So maybe we can look at who their losses came to?

The Union lost just five times in the year, and those losses came to Toronto FC, Chicago Fire FC, FC Cincinnati, FC Dallas, and Charlotte FC. Now, what’s the common denominator between those teams that led to wins? Well, obviously, they all have FC in their name. So that’s a good sign for the remaining teams. Other than that…not much. It seems like their losses came simply because they were on the road and it was time to lose. That’s just how it works in MLS.

So I guess we’ll just have to settle for picking out weaknesses on a relatively personal level rather than a league-wide level. If you were forced to pick out anything, the Union are slightly worse at defending when they’re pinned back in their own third. If you can control the ball, pin them deep and, in particular, get the ball into wide areas to play in crosses, then the Union will be statistically slightly worse at defending. You can try and counter or try and hit in transition, but the Union were tied (with, among other teams, LAFC) for the best mark in the league in goals allowed on the break.

Of course, if you get numbers forward and try to keep the Union on their heels, they could use their own weight against you at any moment and kill you on the counter. You either play into their strengths and hope you’re good enough to survive, or try to survive and just end up playing into their strengths anyway. With the latter option, you might at least be able to get into a bar fight the way FC Cincinnati did. And it almost worked too. If you squint at it anyway.

The good news for NYCFC is that they’re the best pick of any team in the East right now to keep the Union stuck in their own third and capitalize. Will it work? It feels doubtful. But there’s more of a chance than normal.

How to (maybe) beat LAFC

Maybe we can start this time by looking at who their losses came to?

Honestly, even with nine losses on the board this season, you really only need to focus on two in this case: A 2-1 loss to Austin FC at Banc of California back in May and a 4-1 loss to Austin FC at Q2 Stadium back in August. How did Austin get the better of the Supporters’ Shield winners twice you might be wondering?

Well, dear reader, I’m here to tell you that they… outperformed their xG by almost hilariously significant margins in both games. To be fair, that’s kind of been Austin’s deal for most of the year. But the fact is that in both games, Austin were statistically more likely to lose by two goals than they were to win at all.

However, to their credit, they jumped out early, capitalized on every available opportunity, dug in, and let Brad Stuver save them when necessary. It worked twice. Even if it’s not totally replicable every time, it is an ethos.

Especially the getting out ahead early part. To be completely fair to Austin, they were up 4-0 in August before LAFC really started to pile up xG. And in May, Ruben Gabrielsen scored in the 13th minute to get the Verde and Black out on the front foot.

Now, are you ready for the prestige? You may have noticed that we didn’t start with a caveat about there being no statistical weaknesses like we did for the Union. Dear reader, I’m here to tell you (and steal from Matt Doyle) that “per Second Spectrum’s tracking data, LAFC’s set-piece defense was second-worst among playoff teams over the final two months of the season.”

Knowing that, you may not be surprised to learn that half of Austin’s six goals against LAFC this year came off set pieces, which isn’t a shock considering that Austin led the league in set-piece goals this season with 17.

The exhaust port in the LAFC Death Star exists. You just have to send a free-kick into it.

Other Things

MLS veteran midfielder Perry Kitchen announces retirement: Columbus Crew midfielder Perry Kitchen has retired from professional soccer. The 30-year-old relayed the news in a statement on his official Twitter account, citing an August 2021 back injury that resulted in nerve damage in his right leg as the impetus for the announcement.

Portland in advanced talks for club-record signing: The Portland Timbers are in advanced talks to acquire Brazilian attacking midfielder Evander from Danish Superliga side FC Midtjylland, sources tell MLSsoccer.com. The deal would be a club-record signing if it gets done. Evander, 24, has 50 goals and 38 assists in 165 appearances with the club since joining in 2019 from Vasco da Gama, including one goal and four assists in four Europa League games this season. He is a former Brazil youth international and would be a Designated Player signing. A No. 10, Evander would be the new face of Portland's attack. Reports suggesting Evander's release clause is $15 million aren't quite accurate, but the potential transfer fee would still be significant. Evander has previously been linked with Scotland's Rangers FC, an unnamed LaLiga club and Turkish powerhouse Galatasaray.

Sporting Kansas City sign defensive midfielder Nemanja Radoja: Sporting Kansas City have signed Serbian defensive midfielder Nemanja Radoja to a three-year contract ahead of the 2023 campaign. Radoja is signed through 2025 with an option for 2026, and he arrives with a wealth of LaLiga experience. He turns 30 ahead of next season and was recently a free agent after last playing for Levante.

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