It’s only a matter of time until the Canadian men’s national team qualifies for their first World Cup in 36 years. It could be as soon as Thursday night when facing Costa Rica at Estadio Nacional in San Jose (10:05 pm ET | Paramount+, Sportsnet, OneSoccer).
A win guarantees Canada a spot in Qatar. A draw mixed with a Panamanian loss or draw with Honduras, and a US men’s national team loss or draw against Mexico is enough, too. Even a defeat in Costa Rica could still lead to a berth.
However, this is not a mulligan for Canada by any means. Costa Rica are one point adrift of fourth place in the Octagonal standings, which secures an inter-confederation playoff with the Oceania qualifier. Panama currently occupy that position, but the resurgent Ticos are in the hunt having snatched 10 points out of a possible 12 from their previous four games.
To top it off, Costa Rica are unbeaten in 18 of their last 19 home qualifiers. Mexico are the only team to escape the National Stadium of Costa Rica in San José with a victory, a narrow 1-0 win on Sept. 5.
“They are unbeaten now in four matches with three clean sheets,” said Canada coach John Herdman. “They were able to remain unbeaten against Panama, Mexico, Jamaica, three tough games in the last window. I think what I have seen is that they are buying into the coach’s philosophy which is a really tight defensive unit.
“The Costa Rica I had seen in November I think is going to be very different to the one we are going to experience in San José. ... This group of men, they know that this is probably, given the circumstances, the toughest match they are going to play in the octagon.”
If not for a Leonel Moreira howler in the second half of Canada’s 1-0 win in Edmonton last November, there was a distinct possibility that Costa Rica would have salvaged a scoreless draw in that game. They only conceded two shots on target, including the goal, during the match in what was a chippy affair.
It could be a similar theme in Central America, though with two wild-cards in Costa Rica’s favor in Paris Saint-Germain's Keylor Navas and FC Cincinnati's Ronald Matarrita. Navas, arguably the best goalkeeper in Concacaf, was absent for that game, as was Matarrita, a key left fullback for Los Ticos.
Both are fit and available for this one, though Navas’ inclusion should have the most significant impact. It will also set up a scintillating goalkeeper duel against Milan Borjan, one of the other top-performing shot-stoppers in World Cup qualifying.
Luckily for Canada, it is not in a must-win situation like Costa Rica thanks to a perfect January window. Registering three victories in as many games provided Les Rouges the luxury of controlling their own destiny this month.
Despite those results, it wasn’t a convincing three-match window for Herdman. The Canadian coach mentioned that he and his staff analyzed “stats” from January and were not satisfied with some of the declines in particular areas.
“It started to become more of the game management,” Herdman said. “When you go 1-0 up early in a game, you shift to managing the game and I feel there are certain teams in certain circumstances you have to manage games. But I felt we were managing games from too early in the game. We were conceding too much pitch control against Honduras and calling on Milan [Borjan] too often. A lot of that was we were too direct under their high press which just led to a transitional game.
“With the quality we have in this camp, with [Stephen] Eustaquio back, Atiba [Hutchinson] not suspended for any of these matches, I think we can get greater control on these matches and impose a more attacking identity. Even if we go a goal up or two, we want to make sure that is a growth area for us."
Hutchinson and Eustaquio will be favored to start in a double pivot for Canada. Meanwhile, the likes of Jonathan David, Cyle Larin, Junior Hoilett and Tajon Buchanan are in contention upfront. Those spots hinge on Herdman’s priority to protect the midfield with Hoilett, who was tucking inside from the wing to form a trio off the ball during the Honduras and El Salvador matches in January, or by utilizing an attack-minded approach with former New England Revolution star Buchanan.
The intrigue about the lineup centers around the defense. Left back Sam Adekugbe and LAFC center back Doneil Henry are both suspended, while Steven Vitoria, a key cog in the center of that backline, has been dealing with a minor injury for a couple of weeks. Vitoria still received a call-up, but given Herdman’s history of calling up players who are listed as questionable going into a window, there is a chance that it’s a rouse to keep opponents on their toes.
If Vitoria is fit, then he’ll likely play alongside CF Montréal's Alistair Johnston and one of Scott Kennedy or CFM's Kamal Miller to form a back three in possession. Kennedy is in better form, though if Vitoria isn’t risked, both Kennedy and Miller could receive starts.
Vancouver's Cristian Gutierrez has a strong chance of receiving his first full cap for Canada in place of the suspended Adekugbe and even with match fitness concerns of his own, ex-Toronto FC defender Richie Laryea should retain his spot on the right.
Whoever starts, the players and coaching staff are wary of the threat Costa Rica poses. But this is the same team that went on the front foot away to Mexico (1-1 draw) and has scored more goals than any other side in the Octagonal while maintaining the best defense in the region.
“I think it’s a good approach to each game if you go into each game trying to win,” said Colorado Rapids midfielder Mark-Anthony Kaye. “It puts you on the front foot and it makes you more aggressive in the way you want to play and I think overall it feels better when you are trying to win something.
“I think that mental shift of trying to win games no matter where we were definitely helped push us forward and has put us into a good place.”
Canada’s qualifying journey began in an empty Exploria Stadium in Orlando nearly one year ago to the day, and they have played more than 25 hours’ worth of World Cup qualifiers since then. Another 90 minutes potentially separates this team of destiny from the Qatar 2022 World Cup, their first holy grail trip since 1986.
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