Here's what I wrote as my lede in last year's draft recap column:
Everybody assesses their draft after the day is done. "We did well with what we had," can come up short against "We should have been more aggressive in moving up."
Or maybe "Sitting tight was the right call."
But here's the thing: We won't really know how good (or bad) this draft was until, say, 2016 at the earliest. Take everything below with a grain of salt..."
Let's just bump that back to 2017 for this year. One thing to note, though, is that with eight full MLS reserve teams up and running in USL PRO this coming season, the metrics for "success" and "failure" are changing. A second-round pick on a guy who maybe doesn't have the physicality to make MLS, but has the soccer brain to play at a high level and will make the players around him better on the reserves? That's a guy with more value than, maybe, two years ago.
Barcelona B, for example, isn't just all prospects. There's always a bunch of older players who've been around for years, are good pros and know the system, and have no chance of ever lining up next to Messi in a meaningful match. Yet they're a crucial part of the system out there.
Bottom line: some of the guys listed below will be Nuke Laloosh. Others will be Crash Davis. There's value in having a mix of both.
Onto the breakdown:
Better Today Than They Were Yesterday
New York City FC: They shocked everybody by passing on Cristian Roldan at No. 2, but in retrospect we should all have seen it coming. Khiry Shelton was the most MLS-ready attacker in this draft, and can give Jason Kreis depth all over the front line. Connor Brandt, meanwhile, is a project at left back -- but one who stood out for all the right reasons at the Combine. Both of these guys will make the team and see minutes.
New York Red Bulls: RBNY came into this draft needing defensive depth, but Jesse Marsch prudently decided to focus on acquiring veteran defenders instead of kids. His reward was Leo Stolz -- the best, and most MLS-ready player at any spot -- at No. 18. They expect to sign the German, who's said he only would play in LA or New York. Second-round pick Stefano Bonomo is a big, strong No. 9 who is smart enough to make the players around him better, and could provide depth at a position of need.
Portland Timbers: In Nick Besler they have a central midfielder who can play right away, and in Andy Thoma they have a left back who can provide emergency depth while honing his skills with T2 under Jay Vidovich. Then they got forwards Christian Volesky and Kharlton Belmar later in the second round. Volesky has real Crash Davis potential, while Belmar led the Timbers U-23s with eight goals last season.
Houston Dynamo:Zach Steinberger may have been a reach at No. 8, but he's a player with ideas in the final third and the skill to pull them off. Getting Oumar Ballo and Rob Lovejoy in the second round was just smart, as Ballo has the physical skills to play in MLS and fills a position of need, while Lovejoy comes from a program that's known for producing good pros, and can be developed into a true winger in Houston.
Sporting KC: Got the best pure winger in the draft at No. 10 in Connor Hallisey, who will make the team and play legitimate minutes. Some were divided on Saad Abdul-Salaam, the overlapping right back from Akron, but it's hard to argue with Sporting's track record in the draft, and it's hard to argue they didn't need depth at that spot last year. Amadou Dia, who they took at 20, will be converted from attacker to left back over the next few years, and should be a worthy understudy for Seth Sinovic.
Asset Collection 101
Toronto FC: The Reds got a USMNT 'keeper in Alex Bono, which you just can't argue with. Then they went off the board for central defender Clement Simonin at No. 9, and came back on the board for Canadian central defender Skylar Thomas at No. 11 -- two players they appeared to value more than other teams did, and two guys who they feel can compete for playing time at a thin spot on the roster. Right back Wes Charpie and mystery man Edwin Rivas will almost certainly start the year with the TFC reserve team.
They also signed Homegrown attacker Jay Chapman earlier in the day. I know Chapman's not part of the draft, but he sort of brings this point home: TFC are finally starting to value their own assets. They've kept Nick Hagglund and Daniel Lovitz from last year's draft, they've created a pipeline from the academy to the first team, and today they acquired six new guys who can help fix a culture that was never quite right.
Seattle Sounders:Cristian Roldan will play at the heart of the S2 midfield, and namechecked the two guys he's trying to learn from (Osvaldo Alonso and Gonzalo Pineda). Tyler Miller is, like Stolz, on trial in Europe. Like Stolz, he was a top-15 talent (some had him rated ahead of Bono as the best 'keeper in the draft), and could potentially be talked into returning Stateside for an opportunity to play right away. Jamaican Oniel Fisher is already a full international, and was by most accounts the best right back at the Combine.
Orlando City SC:Cyle Larin was obviously the No. 1 pick in this draft, so even though he doesn't really fill a need, he was the right call here. Conor Donovan, the Generation adidas and US U-20 national team central defender, somehow slipped to No. 22.
I expect both those guys, as well as the No. 25 pick, winger Akeil Barrett, to spend much more time on loan with Louisville City, OCSC's USL PRO affiliate, than they do in MLS this season. That's the way it should be, and will be quite often in the future as teams rely less on finding talent and more on crafting it.
Larin's reaction to being selected is priceless, by the way:
Work To Be Done
San Jose Earthquakes: The one spot where San Jose have depth is defensive midfield, so it was a little surprising that they came away from this draft with only Fatai Alashe. Dom Kinnear (whose track record in the draft is nigh impeccable) admitted they tried to trade up to No. 2, but wouldn't say who the target was.
I think this means the Quakes will try to do some wheeling and dealing in the coming weeks, with one of Alashe, JJ Koval, Sam Cronin or Jean-Baptiste Pierazzi headed elsewhere. Those are all real assets, so expect some significant pieces coming back.
Montreal Impact:Romario Williams is not going to be the answer to the questions Montreal have at center forward, but he was a top-5 talent on a Generation adidas contract who can spend at least the upcoming season with the USL PRO reserve team. Like the Quakes, this is a team that I'd expect to see active in the trade market over the next six weeks.
That Was The Plan
Vancouver Whitecaps: For the second year in a row the 'Caps went with a central defender in Round 1. Tim Parker may not have the upside of Christian Dean, but he's more MLS-ready and was a good fit at No. 13. Taking forward Kay Banjo in Round 2 was a bit of a head scratcher. My guess is that they stash him with the reserves and turn him into a winger.
Colorado Rapids: The league's worst defensive team over the last three months of the season decided to go big in an attempt to solve their center back problems. First round pick Axel Sjoberg stands 6-foot-7 while second rounder Joseph Greenspan is 6-foot-6. Sjoberg actually has a chance to start right away, while Greenspan's situation is in limbo because of his mandatory service after attending the US Naval Academy.
While they were addressing back line needs in the draft, they filled a midfield leadership void by snagging Marcelo Sarvas for the Galaxy. It was a good day for the Rapids after a long, long 2014.
FC Dallas: Let's let Oscar Pareja, who drafted the last two rookies of the year, explain:
D.C. United: I got to see Miguel Aguilar a few times this year, and the MLS player he reminded me most of was Fabian Espindola. He won't walk directly into the lineup or anything, but the skills and versatility you want from an attacker in Ben Olsen's system are there.
Dan Metzger, meanwhile, was a steal at No. 42. He's a pure d-mid who can give Olsen a bit of tactical flexibility, something United generally lacked last season.
Best Talent Available
LA Galaxy: It seems like a stretch to imagine the Galaxy, of all teams, handing the keys to their offense to a draft pick. Ignacio Maganto isn't going to get that much responsibilty with the big team in Year 1, but he might earn it with Los Dos. Maganto's a true No. 10 whose chance creation numbers at the Combine were off the charts, and in Carson he'll get an environment that values that exact thing.
Real Salt Lake: I remain kind of stunned that they traded out of the No. 16 spot with Roldan available, since new technical director Craig Waibel had coached the youngster at UW in 2013. But I actually like that they ended up with the tough, versatile defender Boyd Okwuonu at No. 27. He has DeLaGarza-esque upside, and could eventually help RSL at two different spots.
Philadelphia Union: Most everyone had center forward and last year's PDL MVPDzenan Catic going in the first round after an impressive Combine. I'm surprised he slipped as far as he did -- all the way to No. 31 -- but he lands with a team where he has a real chance of cracking the roster. Catic is good with both feet, knows how to be a target and has a nose for the goal. He could be this year's Mark Sherrod.
New England Revolution: Traded out of the second round for Seattle Homegrown striker Sean Okoli, who would have gone in the first round last year had he been available. This move was good for the team and the kid, as Okoli will have a chance to win more minutes in the shallow Revs striker pool than he would have with Seattle.
Wait And See
Chicago Fire: Went down Rt. 55 for both of their picks, SIU-Edwardsville defender Matt Polster at No. 7 and St. Louis University forward Kingsley Bryce at No. 28. Both these moves felt like reaches, though it's not like they hadn't been scouted:
Bottom line here is that the Fire trust their own scouting more than conventional wisdom. That's fine -- as long as it works. If neither of these guys pan out, the fans will remember.
Columbus Crew SC: The CCSC strategy was similar to Chicago's and, to a lesser extent, TFC's in that they trusted their own scouting first and foremost. Sergio Campbell has the physical attributes to compete in MLS, but was far from dominant in college. Sagi Lev-Ari was a productive goalscorer, but at 25 has limited upside and versatility.
I'd feel more comfortable with all four of these picks -- Chicago's and Columbus' -- if they both had full USL PRO teams to use in player development.
One last thought from LA Galaxy defender and draft day afterthought Dan Gargan:
