Michael Bradley - Toronto FC - Nicolas Lodeiro - Seattle Sounders - MLS Cup 2019
Jennifer Buchanan-USA Today Sports Images

FiveThirtyEight: Seattle Sounders, Toronto FC on collision course for another MLS Cup

From the more things change, the more they stay the same file, Toronto FC and the Seattle Sounders are on pace to clash in the MLS Cup Final for the fourth time in the last five years, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight projections.

The teams are co-favorites to win MLS Cup at 16 percent each after Toronto FC defeated Atlanta United 1-0 and the Sounders battled San Jose to a 0-0 draw on Sunday.

If we don’t get Toronto-Seattle Round 4, the Philadelphia Union are the next favorite to win MLS Cup at 10 percent, slightly ahead of LAFC (9 percent) and NYCFC (7 percent).

Toronto FC also increased their odds of finishing with the best regular-season record, with the probability for Greg Vanney’s side now 65 percent, up from 51 percent last week.

The Union, who take on the New England Revolution on Monday (7: 30 pm ET | TV & streaming info) hoping to keep pace with TFC ahead of their weekend clash at Subaru Park, are second favorites at 15 percent, ahead of the Sounders (10 percent) and Columbus (6 percent).

Check out the full projections here, and digest the current first place and MLS Cup favorites below:

FiveThirtyEight: Projected MLS Cup Chances

  1. Toronto FC - 16%
  2. Seattle Sounders - 16%
  3. Philadelphia Union - 10%
  4. LAFC - 9%
  5. New York City FC - 7%