Onto the next one.
Friday Night
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Real Salt Lake
10:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
This is actually a rematch, one of the first of the season. Three weeks ago, in the midst of what looked like it was going to be a horrible, humiliating slide to the bottom akin to last year's miserable start, RSL got the 'Caps at Rio Tinto, got themselves a gameplan, and rode it to a 2-1 win.
"How many times did they punt the ball sixty yards in the first half alone to [Kei Kamara] to play off of him?" is what Mike Petke said after the game. "We worked on it all week—having good shape, reacting to the pressure on the ball, knowing they're sending it long, and getting behind and around for winning second balls. They're a very dangerous team like that."
They are. But Kamara's hurt, and the 'Caps have been outscored 8-0 in two games without him, and they've won just once in their last six. Moreover, they've scored in just one of their three home games.
It's not quite do-or-die time yet, but Vancouver are about three (or so) bad results away from seeing this tailspin turn into a death spiral. Their best hope here might be that they're a harder team to scout now, and that Anthony Blondell brings kind of a different approach to the center forward position than Kei does:
Notice him floating off the backline instead of matching up directly with the center backs? And that pass is just... chef kisses fingers.
We'll see what these teams come up with.
Update: RSL had the better of the first half but no goals, and Vancouver made them pay for it in a 2-0 win. Of note, Alphonso Davies coming off the bench was a key change, and Cristian Techera scored the winning goal but was sent off for taking off his jersey in celebration of the goal.
Saturday Slate
Atlanta United vs. Montreal Impact
1 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
Montreal have the league's worst defense, having conceded 17 goals in 7 games. Pro-rate that over the entire season and you end up somewhere north of 80, and even a barrage of Ignacio Piatti hat tricks won't be able to save you.
So naturally what the doctor ordered is a trip to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a date with Atlanta United and their all-out, ruthless attack.
I have, um, loaded up my MLS Fantasy team with Atlanta players. You probably should do the same.
Toronto FC vs. Chicago Fire
3 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
Speaking of "pain," what Toronto FC did on Wednesday night in Guadalajara should be celebrated. They became just the fourth team in MLS history to win a CCL game in Mexico, the second to do so in the Knockout Round, and the first to do so in the final. They allowed few chances – Chivas' only looks came off of turnovers – generated their own off of set pieces, possession and counterattacks, and certainly had enough to take home a title.
Which, of course, they didn't. Their finishing wasn't sharp enough during the 90, and was disastrous during penalties. Let the CCL hangover begin!
Honestly, I think it goes one of two ways: Either said hangover is real and destructive and the Reds limp all the way to the World Cup break, or it turns out to fuel the fire that burns inside of this team and they Hulk out into a run of dominance that propels them up the table. Given how TFC have approached every single challenge over the last 24 months, I'm guessing it'll be the second thing and that they're going to happily start shoving opponents into the woodchipper.
The Fire may not be such easy meat, though. Last weekend's win in New Jersey was a legitimately great one, and the central midfield looks more robust than it did a month back. They've now won two of three, and while I don't think all their issues are behind them, they're a much better team than they were in March. If the Reds are indeed hungover, Chicago will punish them.
Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United
3:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
There has been a lot of ink spilled on the Union over the last two months. "What's wrong with their defense?" has been a common tack, given that they've been a bit raggedy after a pretty good start. "Is the midfield working as it should?" is another one, given that they have quality but maybe not a real ball-winner. And fair enough – both those things are worth examining.
But here is the long and short of it: They are not finishing. Philly, by both advanced metrics and the eye test, and generating chances. The quality of those chances might be a bit overstated given that so many of them come off crosses, but even so...
They've scored once in their last five games. They've scored three times all season.
Dallas are considered a bad finishing team, and they're at about 75 percent of their expected goals numbers according to Opta (8g on 10.6xG). TFC have had a disastrous start to the season in front of goal, and are at about 45 percent of their xG total (4g on 9.1xG).
Philly are under 30 percent (3g on 10.4xG). David Accam, C.J. Sapong, Borek Dockal and Fafa Picault all have done better, and all need to do better now, because the Eastern Conference is not for the faint of heart. If they keep squandering chances, their season's gonna be over before we get to July.
We'll see if this is the week for them against a D.C. team that sits deep as hell and gives up plenty of chances. The key will be getting Dockal to push higher – actually into the box – so that the Union have actual numbers up top.
Columbus Crew SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
7:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
Columbus are another team who've seen their overall goal total fall short of their expected goals total. That's through no fault of their ageless DP playmaker Federico Higuain, who's playing as well as he ever has in this league:
Part of the above is just that Higuain's in a groove, as is center forward Gyasi Zardes. Another part of the above is that production from the winger rotation of Pedro Santos, Cristian Martinez and Niko Hansen has been somewhere beyond "disappointing" and has now veered into the neighborhood of "worrisome."
Santos, a DP, now has 1g/4a in 1788 MLS minutes (regular season and postseason), which is about 20 game's worth of action. His movement is great and he helps quite a bit in the build-up, but his lack of end product has already cost Columbus two results this year. Martinez has 1g/2a in about 1000 MLS minutes, and Hansen 1g/2a in just over 500. Combined it looks like these guys will not match the production that Justin Meram alone was able to provide last year (13g/7a), and it's a mile from the 2015 team that made it to MLS Cup behind a combined 18g/18a from Meram and Ethan Finlay.
Or... maybe not yet. Santos is what he is at this point, I think, but one of Gregg Berhalter's strengths as a head coach has been the ability to get the best out of his attacking players, to coax consistency and production out of them over time. Neither Meram nor Finlay were particularly highly regarded before Berhalter found starting roles for them – and then stuck with them despite a few bumps in the road. Just look at how Zardes has come alive, right? Perhaps the same path can be found for Hansen or Martinez.
Given how scattershot and disorganized the Quakes backline and midfield has been, this could be a good weekend to find out. San Jose coach Mikael Stahre was known as something of a defensive guru in Sweden, but that really hasn't come to pass in his first two MLS months. His team's constantly been roasted on the flanks and – more damning in my opinion – has constantly allowed opposing attackers to find time and space in Zone 14 between the center backs and central midfield.
It's been ugly.
New England Revolution vs. Sporting KC
7:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
Litmus test game. SKC's attack has been monumental, but their defense has still looked gappy to me, and I think they're vulnerable when trying to play out of the back. The Revs have been better than I think anyone expected – they swarm like hell with their high pressure – but good attacking teams have been able to crack open that backline (Columbus scored two, but could've had five last week).
In the grand scheme of things this game isn't that huge, as it's an inter-conference game. In terms of figuring out what these teams are really all about, though, it's one of the biggest of the weekend.
I'm honestly not sure what to expect in terms of game-style and outcome.
One thing I do expect, though, is for Graham Zusi to get forward on the overlap. And if that happens, don't be surprised if the Revs flip Cristian Penilla over to that side of the field and have him attack the space Zusi leaves behind. Penilla's quietly been one of the league's best wingers, and if he gets a step there's no defender in the league who'll catch him.
Minnesota United vs. Houston Dynamo
8 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
In Week 1 the Dynamo looked like last year's Dynamo in gumming up the midfield, forcing turnovers and counterattacking Atlanta United to death in a 4-0 win. Since then they've slowly reinvented themselves, becoming more of a possession team and mostly doing it pretty well.
Here's an idea of how they've reinvented themselves:
2017 |
2018 |
|
Possession |
43.95 |
48.69 |
Final 1/3 passes per 90 |
72.4 |
92.5 |
Final 1/3 passing accuracy |
62.2 |
70.25 |
Despite a few lapses – the 'Caps and Revs killed 'em on the counter – early returns for Houston have mostly been good. They're playing better, more diverse soccer than they did last season, and while there are bound to be growing pains, they're also bound to be a better and more dangerous team come October. If Houston were a stock, I'd buy it.
I'm not sure I can say the same for Minnesota. I'd be particularly wary of trying to build through the middle in this game were I in charge of the Loons, but I'm not sure they've shown they have any other gameplan so far in their MLS existence. And they definitely haven't shown they can defend.
LA Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls
10:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
Here's a thing we talked about on Matchday Central last week: How, exactly, do the Galaxy get the ball into the final third?
It's kind of an elementary thing, one that you almost take for granted when watching most soccer teams. A lot use their defensive midfielders to play a pass into that zone, while pure counterattacking teams often use a playmaker to release their forwards or attackers into space. Columbus spray diagonals to the fullbacks, who then carry the ball forward, while NYCFC (for example) advance en masse, via possession.
What do the Galaxy do?
Two months into the season I'm not sure we have an answer for that. And Atlanta United punished that lack of clarity last week with a 2-0 win that could've just as easily been 4-0. To the point above: They held LA to a single shot on target.
The Red Bulls will have seen that tape, and like the Five Stripes they're well set-up to punish any 4-4-2 team. Expect a hellbent for leather approach from the visitors.
Sunday's Triple-Header
Colorado Rapids vs. Orlando City
4 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
So here's the interesting thing about the Rapids, who have mostly played in a low-block 5-3-2 this season: They are unusually susceptible to being undone by a simple ball over the top. It happened a few weeks back in a 1-1 draw at FC Dallas, it happened last week in a 3-0 loss to RSL, and it was how the Revs got three points against them back in Week 1. It's a strange weakness for a back-foot team to have, but maybe speaks to their lack of comfort on the ball when they're coaxed out of their own defensive third.
Orlando City are more than happy to play that kind of soccer. Their four-game winning streak has been built through their ability to get out into space:
Obviously that's not the same thing as a ball over the top, but it's operating on the same principle. Draw the defense up, then exploit them.
Chances are that approach will define the entire open-play encounter, since Colorado do the same thing (keep an eye on Dominique Badji). The obvious x-factor will be set pieces, where the Rapids are very good and Orlando City are very bad.
NYCFC vs. FC Dallas
6:30 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
NYCFC took their first L of the season last week in kind of stunning fashion. They held 74 percent possession and completed over 90 percent of their passes, and somehow managed to lose 3-0 at Portland.
Miss me with your "possession doesn't matter" take, by the way:
The correlation isn't as strong in MLS as it is in most of those leagues, but it's there.
That said, a solid and thoughtful bunker-and-counter approach can indeed work when applied selectively, and Dallas have the personnel to do it. Nonetheless it's a much bigger ask to manage it at Yankee Stadium, where the Cityzens have lost just once in the last 12 months.
(Incidentally they lost that on the counter against Portland last summer, so go ahead and study the tapes, folks.)
LAFC vs. Seattle Sounders
9 pm ET | Match Preview | TV & streaming info
Seattle started looking something like themselves last week in a 3-1 win over MNUFC – for at least the first 45 minutes anyway. They were patient and, eventually, precise in using the ball to break down a bunkered-in opponent who had trouble winning second balls in central midfield:
If LAFC have had a fatal flaw thus far in their maiden voyage, it's kind of that. They'll let you knock the ball around a little bit, and if you do it too much their backline will get antsy, try to make a play, and then you can roast them. And if you pin them back, it's no secret that their central midfield combo of Benny Feilhaber and Mark-Anthony Kaye can be slow to close down space and win 50/50s. They are not great at making you miserable if you try to combine through them.
But "not great" doesn't mean "bad." At times LAFC have been very good at closing down lanes and winning second balls, and when that happens they've been spectacular in pushing the ball with intent in the other direction. That resulted in four wins and 16 goals across a six-game, franchise-opening road trip, and if they keep up anything close to that form over the course of the season they will spend the whole year amongst the Western Conference leaders. We'll finally be able to see how Bob Bradley's team plays at home as this match marks the opening of Banc of California Stadium.
Seattle know all of the above too well, as LAFC's road trip began with a 1-0 win up at CenturyLink. The game's only goal came off of a quick transition through midfield, and a bit of brilliance from Carlos Vela and Diego Rossi.
No mysteries for either team here.
One more thing to ponder...
Happy weekending, everybody.
