MLS Cup 2022: FiveThirtyEight picks its winner


The MLS Cup 2022 finalists are in, and so are the projections.

LAFC host the Philadelphia Union Saturday afternoon (4 pm ET | FOX, Univision in US; TSN, TVA Sports in Canada) at Banc of California Stadium for the right to lift the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy. On the surface at least, this dream final between the No. 1 seeds in the East and West is anybody's to win.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest predictions model, however, it's not nearly as close.

FiveThirtyEight: MLS Cup 2022 predictions
FiveThirtyEight: MLS Cup 2022 predictions
Win MLS Cup
Philadelphia Union

Supporters' Shield-winning LAFC have a two-thirds chance of clinching their first-ever league championship. After leaving the LA Galaxy and Austin FC in the dust en route to Saturday's title match, the Black & Gold are favored by 65% to capture MLS Cup, based on the projections.

Philadelphia, who took care of business against FC Cincinnati and NYCFC on their side of the Audi 2022 MLS Cup Playoffs bracket, are clear underdogs as far as FiveThirtyEight is concerned, given their 35% chance of winning it all.

It's worth noting that LAFC and the Union did battle once during the regular season, playing to a 2-2 draw at the Banc on May 7.

Are the projections accurate? Is a surprise in store for Nov. 5? MLS Cup 2022 awaits.