Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: An eye on the Conference Championships in the TwitBag

Welcome back to the #TwitBag, my chance to answer some of your best queries with more than 280 characters. Or sometimes less.


As always, thank you to everyone who sent a question, and apologies to those of you whose questions I couldn't get to.


Let's dive in:

They're clear underdogs. Toronto FC are a better, deeper, more multi-faceted team, and – this is the big one, IMO – are way less error-prone at the back. Even when Columbus Crew SC are playing well they've shown a propensity for catastrophic errors in central defense, and Zack Steffen can paper over those cracks for only so long.


However, this is MLS, and that means "parity" is still a thing. Add in the suspensions to Sebastian Giovinco and Jozy Altidore, and you have the recipe for what would be a pretty big upset.


Still, the Reds are big favorites. I'd put their odds at 2-to-1 or better.

Probably a lot like this:

For those who don't feel like watching the highlights: Toronto's biggest win of the year was 5-0, it was against Crew SC, and it came without either Giovinco or Altidore.


The big difference between that game and what I expect to see on Tuesday is the formation: It was a 3-5-2 in May, but will probably be a 5-4-1 next week. They'll sit deep and absorb, use the extra midfielder to harass the hell out of Wil Trapp, and then try to counter into space with the speed of Tosaint Ricketts and wingbacks who are encouraged to get forward.


Would TFC rather have Giovinco and Altidore out there? Of course. Are they going to panic because they're not available? Nope. They've been without both guys before, and been just fine.


November 16, 2017

I could see that being useful for, say, the final 30 minutes if the Seattle Sounders are trying to protect a result. But I'm a big believer in making sure that the simple things get done right in games like this, and there's rarely anything simple about playing with a false 9.


So I'd start Will Bruin as a true No. 9 and Dempsey underneath him as a sort of a trequartista, with Nicolas Lodeiro cutting in from the right and winger TBD on the left. Given that it's a road game for Seattle, I'd probably go with Joevin Jones out there as a nod to the more defensive nature of first legs in these series.

I honestly feel like they don't. No disrespect to Houston – they've had a much-better-than-expected season, and a longer-than-expected playoff run. Never would I have guessed they'd be here, and they have a great opportunity to put up a franchise-reviving performance in front of a packed house on Tuesday. That stadium should be rocking.


But the Sounders are close to unbeatable when both Roman Torres and Chad Marshall play, and both guys will indeed be playing in this one. Last 17 games they've been on the field at the same time, Seattle are 11-0-6.


So... good luck, Dynamo! Got to figure out a way to drag those guys out of the middle and beat them in isolation, got to figure out a way to keep the Sounders quiet on set pieces, and got to figure out a way to keep Dempsey and Lodeiro under wraps from the run of play.


I don't think Houston have the pieces to pull that off.

You named the three big ones, and I'd put last years Toronto/Montreal right at the top when it comes to two-legged series. For a one-off, that 2004 game between the Revs and D.C. is probably the very best.

I'm fine with it, though bear in mind that I mostly think we should do away with two-legged series in the playoffs and move to single elimination (a point that I'll expand upon at a later date).

So far I like him more as a wingback/fullback than as a central midfielder, simply because he has all the tools to be elite at the first, but lacks one of the big pieces needed at the second – i.e., his first touch in traffic isn't great. It's often good, and he can use it as a weapon, but if you watch how he receives the ball vs. how Weston McKennie receives the ball, there's a notable difference with regard to both body shape and strength.


Adams could very well improve at this, and he's got enough in his bag already that he could still be very, very good even without further development of his first touch. Did you see the left-footed through-ball he hit to play DeAndre Yedlin through in the 78th minute? There aren't a lot of guys in the pool who can do that.


For what it's worth, he thinks he's a central midfielder and the Red Bulls claim they think so as well. So Tyler Adams, central midfielder, is probably what we're going to see a bunch of in 2018.

To me, C.J. Sapong is ideal as a CONCACAF-style banger, the next stop on the Brian Ching > Conor Casey > Alan Gordon local. Hopefully the US won't need him, per se, but he's a good weapon to have in the arsenal, and I'd have taken him over either Altidore or Bobby Wood against Trinidad & Tobago.


But if we're relying upon him come Qatar? I don't love that idea.

This is something everyone involved in the pool should be thinking about, and we saw a bit of it against Portugal. The US national team have a few No. 6s coming through the ranks, and a huge number of No. 8s. What we don't have is a lot of No. 10s aside from Christian Pulisic – who is primarily a winger at this point in his young career. The same could be said for Andrew Carleton, whose career is even younger.


What the US showed against Portugal was an ability to blanket the field and play quickly through the lines. It lacked artistry, but should this be the direction the next US coach takes, we wouldn't be the first team in the world to shift our primary playmaker out to the wings, and we'd definitely be in line with the modern ideal of "create a lot of turnovers in central midfield, then hit hard through the flanks."

None yet. Let's see how it evolves over the next six months before we jump in.


Cheers folks!