David Villa - New York City FC - cringing - isolated
USA Today Sports

Has NYCFC's home form put their playoff hopes in jeopardy?

New York City FC currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference, but that is no thanks to their play at home.

Patrick Vieira’s team have won just once in their first seven games at Yankee Stadium, with the latest loss coming in embarrassing fashion to their rivals, the New York Red Bulls.

What's more, NYCFC are one of only two teams to not have at least two home wins so far, with the other being a Toronto FC team that has played just four games at home, all since May 7.

Our own Matt Doyle has given the team a 0 percent chance of making the playoffs because of their awful start at home, but should we be going to these extremes with 10 games at Yankee Stadium still to go?

Looking back at the last five years, the answer is probably.

Of the 52 teams to make the playoffs since MLS moved to a 34-game schedule in 2011, only two have won fewer than seven home games. Those teams were the 2011 Colorado Rapids and Sporting Kansas City in 2014.

Those teams each finished with six wins at home, meaning NYCFC would have to win half of their home games the rest of the season to match them, which may be difficult with Real Salt Lake (6/2), Colorado (7/30), LA (8/20) and Dallas (9/17) still set to visit. Not to mention, another round looms with the Red Bulls (7/3).

If David Villa, Andrea Pirlo & Co. hope to not rely on two outliers in order for them to make the playoffs, they will need to get eight wins at home. That is the number the Portland Timbers hit before winning the 2015 MLS Cup.

To reach to eight home wins, they will need to win 70 percent of their remaining home games this season. Only eight teams have won their home games at that rate since 2011, so that is not the most realistic outcome for the rest of their season.

Barring a sudden increase in their form, it is clear that NYCFC are in trouble. 

Worst home records among playoff teams since 2011

Year Team W L D PPG
2011 COL 6 2 9 1.18
2014 SKC 6 5 6 1.35
2011 PHI 7 1 9 1.29
2011 NY 8 3 6 1.59
2012 VAN 8 3 6 1.59
2015 POR 8 3 6 1.59
2013 NE 8 5 4 1.71
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