Cristian Roldan - celebrating - against Toronto
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FiveThirtyEight forecasts MLS Cup, giving Seattle Sounders advantage over Toronto FC

MLS Cup is set and the projections are out for the trilogy match between Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC.

According to the folks at FiveThirtyEight, the home side are the favorites, giving the Sounders a 65% probability to lift the cup for the second time in four years. Will they deliver at CenturyLink Field?

As always, it's important to note that probabilities are just that, not certainties. FiveThirtyEight forecasted we were likely headed for an MLS Cup between LAFC and Atlanta United before Seattle and Toronto engineered a pair of upsets to get here. 

Home-field advantage had been quite useful at the beginning of the playoffs, as the home side advanced in eight of the first 10 matches entering the Conference Finals before Toronto and Seattle advanced. 

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Will we have one more upset in these wild playoffs?