Slowly, slowly, the bracket is taking shape for the Audi 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs as the regular season ticks down towards its conclusion, and FiveThirtyEight’s latest projections offer some useful perspective on who’s out, who’s in and how the seedings could line up.
Here’s a quick rundown of what the renowned 538 number-crunchers are predicting after Week 29.
Eastern Conference
Six of the seven postseason slots are determined in the East, and the New England Revolution remain on course to nab that final invite despite dropping more points at home on Saturday: 538 has the Revs at 68% likely to finish seventh.
New England’s scoreless draw vs. Real Salt Lake opened the door for the Chicago Fire to make up ground in their last-ditch scramble to climb into the playoffs. But alas, the Men in Red flubbed their lines, too, mustering only a 0-0 result in their visit to last-place FC Cincinnati. That puts Chicago at a 21% projection to finish seventh, which isn’t great – but it beats the slim 5% chance assigned to both fading Montreal and Orlando, who both lost again this weekend.
There’s a lot more uncertainty when it comes to the East’s order of finish. New York City FC hold a 75% likelihood of keeping hold of first place and the first-round playoff bye it offers, while Atlanta United retain a 22% shot of catching them in the final weeks.
The Five Stripes are looking good for second place as they beat San Jose 3-1 at home while the Philadelphia Unionfell 2-0 at the New York Red Bulls, though Sunday’s winners D.C. United are projected to edge RBNY to fourth place and the home playoff game that entails.
Western Conference
It’s a different picture in the West, where LAFC remain the only team to have officially clinched a postseason spot and seven teams are crowded into a pack that spans a mere six points from the second to eighth places.
FiveThirtyEight projects that logjam to continue until the very end. And while the Seattle Sounders remain in second place for now, they could eventually pay for this week’s home draw with FC Dallas and road loss in D.C. That's because Seattle, Minnesota United and the LA Galaxy are predicted to finish deadlocked on 53 points.
Remember: The first tiebreaker is number of wins, the second is goal differential and the third is goals scored – and at present, the Galaxy have 15 wins compared to 14 each for the Sounders and Loons.
RSL are looking good to make the postseason, though they may not get to host an opening-round game as they're projected to finish fifth. It’s still looking like two from three among Dallas, Portland and San Jose when it comes to the sixth and seventh spots, and with all three of them going winless this week, FCD are still statistically the odd ones out at this point.
