There is no getting around it: The US national team are in a tricky spot heading into their final two World Cup qualifiers.
A Sept. 1 loss to Costa Rica and a draw at Honduras four days later left the Americans in fourth in the CONCACAF Hexagonal standings, one point behind Panama – whom they face on Friday (7:30 pm ET; ESPN2, Univision, UDN) – for the region’s third and final automatic World Cup place:
PTS |
W |
L |
D |
GF |
GA |
GD |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<a href="/meta/club/mexico">Mexico</a> - x |
18 |
5 |
0 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
+8 |
Costa Rica |
15 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
12 |
5 |
+7 |
Panama |
10 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
+2 |
<a href="/meta/club/united-states">United States</a> |
9 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
12 |
11 |
+1 |
Honduras |
9 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
16 |
-7 |
Trinidad & Tobago |
3 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
4 |
15 |
-11 |
A fourth-place finish and the attendant intercontinental World Cup playoff against Australia or Syria is a real possibility. A fifth-place finish and missing Russia entirely is less likely, but still feasible.
Of course, the US do have several paths to finishing in the top-three. Here are the scenarios in which they'd clinch a spot in Russia following their final Hex matches against Panama and then at Trinidad & Tobago on Oct. 10:
US win both remaining matches
If the US defeat Panama and Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:
- Honduras lose/draw one of their remaining matches at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
OR…
- Honduras win at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10, but don’t catch the US in goal difference (HON GD: -7; US GD: +1)
OR…
- Costa Rica lose vs. Honduras on Oct. 5 and at Panama on Oct. 10
US win vs. Panama, draw at Trinidad & Tobago
If the US win vs. Panama and draw at Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:
- Honduras earn fewer than four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
- AND…
- Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10 or win but fail to catch the US on goal difference (PAN GD: +2; US GD: +1)
OR…
- Honduras earn four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10 but don’t catch the US in goal difference
- AND…
- Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10 or win but fail to catch the US on goal difference (PAN GD: +2; US GD: +1)
US draw vs. Panama, win at Trinidad & Tobago
If the US draw vs. Panama and win at Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:
- Honduras earn fewer than four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
- AND…
- Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10
OR…
- Honduras earn four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10 but don’t catch the US in goal difference
- AND…
- Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10
US win vs. Panama, lose at Trinidad & Tobago
If the US beat Panama and lose at Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:
- Honduras earn fewer than three points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
- AND…
- Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10
OR…
- Honduras earn three points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10 but don’t catch the US in goal difference
- AND…
- Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10
US draw both matches
If the US draw both Panama and Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:
- Honduras earn two points or fewer at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
- AND…
- Panama lose their final match and don't pass the US in goals scored
The US cannot finish in the top-three if they lose vs. Panama, draw vs. Panama but lose at Trinidad & Tobago, or if they lose both matches.
