MLSsoccer.com contributor Sam Stejskal wrote at FourFourTwo.comearlier this week about the struggling FC Dallas attack.
Oscar Pareja's team have lost three of their last four games, as they were outscored by a total of 9-1. One goal in four games is not very good, but as Sam points out, that hasn't been that out of the ordinary for FCD. Of their 33 goals, they've scored 16 across four of their matches and put in 17 across their other 19 games. Additionally, their 1.43 goals per game this season is just .04 less than they scored last season when they lifted the Supporters' Shield.
Mauro Diaz' injury and the lack of a scoring touch from striker Cristian Colman are two clear reasons for the dip in production. These have put a ton of pressure on Maxi Urruti, who is scoreless in his last five games and has never been the most consistent striker.
But when digging into the numbers, it's initially tough to figure out the exact problem in Frisco. Dallas are not only averaging roughly the same amount of goals this season, but also roughly the same amount of shots, shots on target, shots inside the box and chances created from open play.
However, going to the next level of statistics provided by Opta gives us some answers.
Dallas averaged 1.97 big chances per game in 2016, the highest average in MLS. Opta defines a big chance as a situation where a player should be reasonably expected to score. That total largely rested on the play of Diaz, who created 15 big chances by himself, the second-highest total in the league.
In 2017, the number of big chances Dallas has created has dropped to just 1.17 per game, good for the fourth-worst average in the league. No player on the team has created more than four big chances.
These figures are backed up by the expected goals data provided by Opta. Last season, Dallas averaged 1.43 expected goals per game, meaning they would be expected to score 1.43 goals per game on average given the quality of their chances. That number has dipped to 1.28 expected goals per game in 2017.
With the quality of their chances dipping, consistency has become tougher for Dallas. And with Diaz still laboring with injuries, it's tough to see where an improvement in chance quality will come from.
