Galaxy take down San Jose in Cali Clásico
Martín Cáceres found the breakthrough goal for LA in the 60th minute and Dejan Joveljic came on as a sub in the 90th minute and immediately found the closer as LA beat San Jose 2-1 in the latest Cali Clásico.
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Another week in the books and it kind of seems like we know less than ever. You have to love a league that makes you question whether you’ve ever known literally anything once every eight weeks or so. Thanks, MLS. For humbling me.
In particular, it’s the Eastern Conference that’s stressing me. The Western Conference has been relatively straightforward other than one expansion team deciding to be an overachiever.
Let’s talk it out.
I’ve put together a comprehensive list of Eastern Conference teams that are actually good: Probably New England, probably FC Cincinnati, maybe Nashville and probably Philadelphia. I’ve also put together a comprehensive list of Eastern Conference teams that are actually bad: Probably just Toronto right now?
Look, Atlanta United are in fourth place in this conference. With six more points, they’d be tied for first. With six fewer points, they’d be tied for dead last. I count one, two, three, four, five, six, seven… seven! Seven teams with exactly 15 points! You could run an entire playoff with just the 15-pointers. And the teams in last, New York Red Bulls and Toronto, are either a) One of the single best teams in the league per the underlying numbers (RBNY) or b) kind of an injured mess right now but could totally put it together with a decent Secondary Transfer Window (Toronto).
No one is close to being dismissed as an Audi MLS Cup Playoffs team. Very few teams feel surefire. This could be the messiest conference in league history, and we are truly blessed to be on such a timeline.
Or, the teams could start separating themselves in exactly the way we expect and all will wrap up nicely. But Inter Miami are on a three-game winning streak and CF Montréal are on a four-game winning streak and anything feels possible right now.
I’ll be straight from the jump here. Probably not very. It’s not like any of the three teams are suddenly coming good after a lengthy spell of underperforming their underlying numbers. They’re just… honestly, I don’t really even know what’s happening.
The fact Inter Miami have put together these performances after losing Jean Mota for most of the season is remarkable. I think almost everyone expected them to fall even further off a cliff when it happened. I’m truly blown away by how they’ve parkour rolled out of a six-game losing streak into a three-game winning streak. But it's hard to see it being a long-term deal. They’ve lost so much. And right now it kind of feels like a person continuing on after a traumatic event thanks to a surge of adrenaline. Eventually, that runs outs.
Montréal, whose roster still seems a little better than what I think the offseason narrative probably suggested, have picked up wins against Red Bulls, Sporting KC, Orlando City and Toronto. Even with a decent roster, they haven’t exactly toppled giants here. They have a huge test on Wednesday against FC Cincinnati and a “new manager bounce” Red Bulls side on Saturday. It’s a big week.
And Charlotte are at least looking a bit more like a second-year expansion team taking a jump forward. The Justin Meram pickup has already paid dividends and their big wins – they’ve won three of their last four – have come against Columbus, NYCFC and Atlanta. They’re at least starting to avoid some of the early-season disasters that came with some… let’s call it overcomplications from Christian Lattanzio. But the defense is still a mess, and it’s not totally clear yet how much firepower they actually have in their three DPs.
I’m not trying to condemn any of these teams. I’m just trying to say that maybe you should temper your expectations after surprise hot streaks. Those burn out quickly in this league. Do your best to enjoy them while you can. Because you can just as quickly become…
Yikes. All of these teams' readily-apparent problems have manifested as of late. Atlanta and NYCFC have lost three straight in MLS, while the Crew feel like they’ve lost three straight after blowing a 2-0 lead to Orlando this weekend. However, I think we’re still talking about relatively good MLS teams given the quality of their rosters. But I also think we’re talking about relatively average MLS teams given the lack of quality on their rosters. So…
For NYCFC, it’s pretty straightforward. This isn’t getting fixed until they figure out their striker situation. For Atlanta, this isn’t getting fixed for at least one more transfer window, potentially two, and they have a top-level midfield and production from their wings. For Columbus, they simply need more help for Lucas Zelarayán and Cucho Hernández. At least enough to ease some of the burden. The whole “blowing leads late” thing from last year popped up again this weekend but I think we can call it a momentary relapse.
Either way, these are Tier II teams. Teams that could take down anyone at a moment's notice but don’t have the quality to be consistent. They’re just going to exist like this for a while, and it’s probably going to drive their fanbase insane. But it might pay off in the end. There’s a clear path for each team to get better in the Secondary Transfer Window. Clear enough to where they might just be Tier I by season’s end.
We’ve talked about it a lot as of late, but the Red Bulls' underlying numbers are great. Especially defensively. No team has been better in the East at keeping their opponent from creating chances. They picked up a 1-0 win this weekend against NYCFC in which both teams created roughly 0.3 xG. This is kind of exactly who they are at this point. It’s not necessarily fun, but on a long enough timeline, that kind of defensive performance earns you points. Even if you need a moment of magic from Omir Fernandez like you got this weekend.
Maybe Lewis Morgan’s eventual return will be what they need to make things a little more exciting, but, for now, they’re going to be MLS’ brutalist architecture team. Nothing is going to look pretty but it will get the job done. That just seems to be who this group is.
Meanwhile, the Union, another typically brutal team, are shapeshifting a bit. Literally and figuratively. They came out in a 3-5-2 this weekend in an effort to present something different on the road, and it worked pretty well. It’s a different setup from their typical 4-4-2 diamond, but it helped them pull out a win over Colorado.
They’re now sitting fifth in the East after a rough start to their MLS campaign, and I fully expect them to keep climbing. CCL is over, they’re relatively healthy and they’re adapting tactically. I’d bet they not only figure out how to grab points, but that they start putting it together in some of the same ways we saw last summer when they began bulldozing teams for the heck of it. There’s still a gap at the top of the East, but New England and Cincy aren’t safe up there.
I don’t really have anything else to add. I just think Orlando City should start Duncan McGuire, the guy who keeps scoring all the goals.
- The Galaxy might be back "on the right track" after securing a Cali Clásico triumph against San Jose.
- Paul Rothrock sparked a Seattle Sounders win with his first MLS goal.
- Jonathan Sigal’s (!!) Sunday column is up and good.
Good luck out there. Make the most of your time.
