Dimers Betting Tips

MLS Cup Winner Futures Update after 11 weeks

After a little more than two months of MLS action so far in 2023, every team in the league has played at least nine matches to this point in the season. There’s still plenty of time in the regular season to go, but soccer bettors have had the chance to see what this years’ clubs have to offer and should already be making some adjustments to their MLS Cup winner futures as a result. Our gaming content provider, Dimers.com, provides a breakdown of all of the contenders to win the 2023 MLS Cup this October.

The MLS Cup Favorite: Los Angeles FC (+450 to win at BetMGM)

Los Angeles FC is moving on to the CONCACAF Champions League final after defeating the Philadelphia Union 4-1 aggregate in the semi-finals. The club will be looking to add more hardware to its trophy case in that finals matchup against Club Leon after it won the MLS Cup last year.

And if the odds are any indication, LAFC could be in for even more success this October as the clear favorite to win the 2023 MLS Cup. BetMGM has LAFC listed at +450 to win the cup for the second straight year, and DimersBOT’s simulations for the rest of the season project Los Angeles’s chances to win it all at 19.4%.

LAFC suffered its first defeat in MLS league play in Week 11 when losing to the San Jose Earthquakes 2-1, but still boast a 5-3-1 record. Denis Bouanga is leading the way with eight goals in those nine matches. With 17 goals for and only eight goals against thus far in 2023, it’s easy to see why LAFC is a popular pick to repeat as champion.

The Top MLS Cup Contenders

  • Seattle Sounders (+800 at BetMGM, 7.1% to win MLS Cup per DimersBOT)
  • FC Cincinnati (+900, 9.0%)
  • New England Revolution (+900, 6.9%)

Through 10 games played, the Seattle Sounders sit atop the Western Conference standings with 20 points, a 6-2-2 record, and a +10 goal differential. Seattle’s smothering defense has allowed only seven goals through the club’s first 10 MLS games this season. The Sounders advanced to the MLS Cup Finals four times in five years from 2016-2020 and won the championship in two of those four games. After missing the playoffs in 2022, Seattle appears to be back on track this year.

Over in the Eastern Conference, FC Cincinnati and the New England Revolution both hold the top two spots on the table with matching 7-3-1 records through 11 games. New England currently holds the tiebreaker with a +9 goal differential to Cincinnati’s +3. Neither of these clubs have ever won the MLS Cup, but both have climbed to the top of the East out of the gate and look like potential contenders to battle for first place as the season moves forward.

Other Teams in the Mix to Win the MLS Cup

  • Atlanta United (+1200, 5.9%)
  • St. Louis City SC (+1400, 1.0%)
  • New York City FC (+1400, 7.8%)
  • Philadelphia Union (+1600, 6.7%)
  • Nashville SC (+1600, 6.4%)

Atlanta United sits in fourth place in the Eastern Conference right behind FC Cincinnati and New England with 18 points and a 5-3-2 record. Atlanta has a dynamic offense with 20 goals scored so far this season, but the club has also been awful on defense allowing 18 goals thus far.

St. Louis City has surged up the betting board with its red-hot 6-1-3 start, fueled by an MLS-leading 22 goals in 10 games. DimersBOT is not buying into the early hype at all, projecting that St. Louis only wins the MLS Cup in 1% of its projections for the rest of the season. Like Atlanta United, St. Louis hasn’t been great on defense early on, surrendering 12 goals in 10 games.

DimersBOT is far more optimistic about New York City FC, giving the club the third highest projection to win the MLS Cup behind LAFC and Cincinnati. NYCFC is right in the middle of the pack among the playoff contenders in the Eastern Conference right now with a 4-3-4 record.

Nashville SC has allowed the fewest goals against per game in 2023 with only six goals conceded in 11 matches. The club is 5-3-3 over that stretch and may have its upside capped by an offense that has scored only 14 goals this season.

The Philadelphia Union finished in first place in the Eastern Conference last season with a 19-10-5 record and pushed LAFC to penalties in the MLS Cup finals. But so far this season, the club has disappointed with a 4-2-4 record through 10 games. Bettors who believe that Philadelphia will bounce back as the season progresses may not get a better price than this one.

MLS Cup Odds Update For the Rest of the Eastern Conference

  • Columbus Crew (+2500, 4.3%)
  • Orlando City SC (+2500, 2.8%)
  • D.C. United (+3300, 0.6%)
  • Toronto FC (+3300, 2.2%)
  • Inter Miami FC (+5000, 1.1%)
  • New York Red Bulls (+6600, 1.1%)
  • CF Montreal (+10000, 0.9%)
  • Charlotte FC (+10000, 0.4%)
  • Chicago Fire (+15000, 1.4%)

The Columbus Crew are the only team in this group that the DimersBOT gives better than a 3.0% chance of winning the MLS Cup this season. Perhaps the most interesting team on this list however is the Chicago Fire, who at 2-5-3 with 13 goals scored and 16 goals allowed haven’t been nearly as bad as their future odds would indicate.

MLS Cup Odds Update For the Rest of the Western Conference

  • FC Dallas (+3300, 4.0%)
  • Minnesota United (+3300, 1.6%)
  • Austin FC (+3300, 1.2%)
  • Houston Dynamo (+3300, 1.2%)
  • Los Angeles Galaxy (+3300, 1.1%)
  • San Jose Earthquakes (+4000, 1.6%)
  • Vancouver Whitecaps (+5000, 1.8%)
  • Portland Timbers (+6600, 1.5%)
  • Real Salt Lake (+15000, 0.3%)
  • Colorado Rapids (+20000, 0.5%)
  • Sporting Kansas City (+25000, 0.3%)

FC Dallas currently sits in fourth place in the Western Conference standings with a 4-3-3 record. It’s difficult to find any other teams on this list that could cause much trouble for LAFC, Seattle, and St. Louis out West.