Playoff probabilities for every MLS team after Week 29

Another weekend, another twist in the wild MLS homestretch.

We know who would be in and who would be out if the season ended today. But of course, teams still have a differing number of games remaining in the season, not to mention a varying strengths of schedule as they make their bid for the 2017 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.

To get a sense of each team's true playoff probability, FiveThirtyEight.com looks at forecasts and SPI ratings, which you can read more about here. If you want to see your team's odds to get a first-round bye, win Supporters' Shield or win MLS Cup, you can also find out here. Those numbers are updated live shortly after a game is completed.

While there have been some minor changes in the East, the more major shifts come out West, with Real Salt Lake winning again, FC Dallas' slide continuing, and the San Jose Earthquakes getting hammered by Patrick Mullins and D.C. United.

Below, find the probability that your team will do enough over the final month to reach the playoffs.

Eastern Conference

  1. Toronto FC - clinched
  2. New York City FC - clinched
  3. Atlanta United - >99%
  4. Chicago Fire - >99%
  5. Columbus Crew SC - 97%
  6. New York Red Bulls - 88%
  7. Montreal Impact - 8%
  8. New England Revolution - 6%
  9. Philadelphia Union - <1%
  10. Orlando City SC - <1%
  11. D.C. United - <1%

Western Conference

  1. Vancouver Whitecaps FC - > 99%
  2. Sporting Kansas City - > 99%
  3. Portland Timbers - > 99%
  4. Seattle Sounders - 97%
  5. Houston Dynamo - 75%
  6. Real Salt Lake - 55%
  7. FC Dallas - 42%
  8. San Jose Earthquakes - 31%
  9. Minnesota United FC - <1%
  10. Colorado Rapids - <1%
  11. LA Galaxy - <1%