Why FC Dallas will get back above the playoff line | Expected Goals

FC Dallas have taken a tumble down the Western Conference standings in recent weeks, going winless in their last six matches including four losses. That has resulted in them going from the top of the conference in terms of points per game to sixth. When looking at total points, they sit below the playoff line.


They are one of just eight teams to play this weekend, with a majority of the league taking off due to the international break, and they will be looking to re-start their season when the New York Red Bulls come to town on Saturday night (9 pm ET; UniMĆ”s, Facebook.com in US | MLS LIVE in Canada).


The good news for Oscar Pareja's team is they have the easiest schedule the rest of the way when looking at expected goals data provided by Opta. When looking at the expected goal difference of Dallas' remaining opponents, the average is the lowest for any team's remaining schedule. You can find the five easiest remaining schedules according to expected goals data below.

Team
Opponent Avg. xGD/Game
DAL
-.15
TOR
-.09
SEA
-.06
POR
-.06
PHI
-.05

The question of whether or not Dallas can take advantage of this relatively easy schedule is up for debate but it's clear that they still have a pretty good shot at making the Audi 2017 MLS Cup Playoffs.


Two important notes before looking at Week 25's xG numbers: Penalties have a value of .79, and own goals are not factored into the values.

Game
Result
Home xG
Away xG
Columbus Crew SC vs. LA Galaxy
2-0
3.87
.51
D.C. United vs. Atlanta United
1-0
1.25
.89
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union
3-0
.74
.90
FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo
3-3
2.16
2.20
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Seattle Sounders
1-1
.84
2.26
Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes
4-0
2.56
.94
Portland Timbers vs. Colorado Rapids
2-1
1.98
.51
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC
1-1
2.80
.87
D.C. United vs. New England Revolution
1-0
2.82
1.29
Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United
2-2
1.23
1.05
Orlando City SC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC
1-2
1.61
.94
Columbus Crew SC vs. FC Dallas
2-1
1.44
.52
Chicago Fire vs. Minnesota United FC
1-2
1.54
1.29
Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids
4-1
2.89
.94
Montreal Impact vs. Toronto FC
1-3
.88
1.80
LA Galaxy vs. San Jose Earthquakes
0-3
1.13
2.92
Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers
1-1
2.45
1.48
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