Are the Montreal Impact due for some regression? | Expected Goals

The Montreal Impact are flying high after a 3-0 win at Talen Energy Stadium on Saturday night, putting them just five points behind Columbus Crew SC with three games in hand.

The win was Montreal's second straight against an Eastern Conference opponent and the three goals gave them 35 on the season while their 1.59 goals-per-game average puts them in the top 10 in MLS. But when you look at some expected goals data provided by Opta, you see that average could drop soon.

Montreal have averaged just 1.21 expected goals per game this season, meaning their 1.59 goals-per-game average could be due to some impressive finishing and even some luck. That kind of over-performance could lead to some regression towards the mean and a drop in the team's goal-scoring rate down the home stretch of the season. Of course, it's also entirely possible that the Impact continue over-perform their xG figures and ride the wave to the playoffs. We'll just have to wait and see.

Two important notes before looking at Week 23's xG numbers: Penalties have a value of .79, and own goals are not factored into the values.

Game Result Home xG Away xG
Seattle Sounders vs. Sporting Kansas City 1-0 1.60 .35
Toronto FC vs. Portland Timbers 4-1 2.57 1.31
New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City  3-1 1.38 .68
Columbus Crew SC vs. Chicago Fire 3-1 2.60 .80
New England Revolution vs. Orlando City SC 1-0 .86 .93
FC Dallas vs. Colorado Rapids 0-0 1.67 .24
Philadelphia Union vs. Montreal Impact 0-3 .61 1.13
Houston Dynamo vs. San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 3.74 1.10
LA Galaxy vs. New York City FC 0-2 2.00 .41
D.C. United vs. Real Salt Lake 0-1 1.22 1.31

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