Bruce Arena says he will be making as many as four or five changes to his starting lineup for the USMNT ahead of Tuesday night's World Cup qualifier in Panama (10 pm ET; BeIN Sports). He might have to give at least a couple of players their full national team debuts, and he might have to go down the depth chart in a couple of spots. He may have to switch the formation as well as the lineup.
For years, US fans and a fair number of US players have longed for one thing: Consistency in terms of tactical approach, born out of consistency in squad selection and formation. Because of a rash of injuries, Arena is not likely to be able to provide that in his second official game in charge.
John Brooks and Sebastian Lletget, starters from Friday's record-setting 6-0 win over Honduras, are back home nursing injury and illness, respectively. That will necessitate two changes at minimum. Jermaine Jones is eligible again, which could (not should) mean a third. DaMarcus Beasley is on this trip, I suspect, to provide a dose of veteran savvy at fullback, so that might be a fourth change. Maybe Graham Zusi gets the start at right back? That'd be five.
It's not ideal. But after Friday's show, it's safe to assume the US will be confident despite the unfriendly reception they're sure to receive.
A few bullet points:
• I've rewatched the win over Honduras twice now and remain kind of stunned at how open the US allowed the central midfield to be. We all called it a 4-4-2 diamond (which it was), but at times it was a 4-1-5. Part of it felt like Arena was challenging captain Michael Bradley to hold that part of the field down all by himself, and part of it felt like he was daring the pure attackers – mostly Clint Dempsey, Jozy Altidore and Christian Pulisic – to just go out there and score every time they got into the final third.
By the time it was 4-0, however, he had the troops ease the foot off the gas:
Alejandro Bedoya's night was fascinating, and underappreciated. His ability to slide inside in support of Bradley, but still get to the touchline in support of his fullback, more or less locked the game down for the US. Still though: He was an outside player primarily tasked with moving inside – necessary in the 4-4-2 diamond, but not all that customary in the modern game.
That's partially why I suspect the diamond may not be the choice on Tuesday. Panama flood the central midfield more than Honduras does, so putting more numbers there from the start makes a certain amount of sense for the US.
• Panama don't have a genius No. 10, or a giant target forward to play off of (Blas Perez is hurt), or burners on the wings. They are still who they are in 2013, and in case you don't remember how they took a lead in that ultimately fateful qualifier four years ago:
That's not exactly "flooding the central midfield," but the principle is there: When they eat, it's because of turnovers in that area. Both Bradley and Pulisic had their moments of slop through the first 20 minutes against Honduras, and Panama are better built (they'll play a 4-3-3 rather than a 5-4-1) to punish that.
We've seen both Armando Cooper and Anibal Godoy pounce on turnovers like that in MLS. If you've watched los Canaleros internationally, you'll understand they do the same sorts of things there.
• Is Pulisic going to be the best player in USMNT history? I think so, but this needs to be answered in the affirmative:
Dempsey and Landon Donovan regularly annihilate/annihilated CONCACAF teams. Gotta dominate the back yard before you can be crowned king of the world.
If Arena does switch the formation – again, it's not even close to a given that he will – Pulisic will probably end up on the right wing, and cut diagonally to get on the ball in Zone 14 rather than starting in Zone 14 and bursting through the lines vertically. The goal would be to provide a little more protection in front of the backline, but also to force Panama's defensive midfielder into some uncomfortable choices.
If the US's most dangerous, creative threat is getting on the ball out wide, how far out does the d-mid (probably Amilcar Henriquez) go to challenge him? And if he goes to follow, what happens when Dempsey drops into the hole and becomes an ad hoc playmaker? Neither of the starting center backs (Roman Torres and Felipe Baloy) are all that well equipped to follow Dempsey off the line, and suddenly the US are asking real questions and causing real trouble.
• I mentioned above that I don't really think Jones should start, and it's mostly because I think that shape and structure are paramount on the road in qualifiers. Jones is still, at heart, a freelancer who is liable to go chasing when prudence is demanded, and a long-ball lover who eschews the simple pass in order to habitually spread the field.
There's still room for that in the US player pool, but is a better fit as a tactical ploy rather than a from-the-start gamble that forces both teams into constant, on-the-fly adjustments. Bedoya or – yes, I know this is what a large chunk of the fanbase wants – Kellyn Acosta make more sense just in terms of fit and function.
• Take all of the above with a grain of salt, though, because here's my predicted US XI:
Diamonds are forever.
