What expected goal numbers reveal about the 2021 MLS standings

With the 2021 MLS regular season in the books, the expected goals numbers for every club can now be examined across a full 34-game sample size.

The stat isn't everything, of course, but it's always interesting to look at how many goals teams actually scored and conceded compared to their xG numbers, which measure the quality of a created chance and the likelihood that an opportunity will be scored. Chances are measured on a scale from 0-1, 0 being an impossible chance to score and 1 being an opportunity that should always result in a goal.

Coming off Decision Day, the unluckiest team in all of MLS was LAFC. Bob Bradley's side, the 2019 Supporters' Shield winners, surprisingly failed to grab a playoff place but it might have been very different had they performed up to their xG numbers. While their real goal difference was just 2, their expected goal difference was 21, the second-highest in all of MLS behind New York City FC.

Another team that will count themselves unfortunate not to have made the postseason is D.C. United. The capital club narrowly missed out on the playoffs on the final day but underperformed their xG difference by nine goals on the season.

Check out the tables below, compiled via Opta data, for each conference to see where how your club's numbers shaped out.

Eastern Conference goal difference vs. xG difference
Eastern Conference goal difference vs. xG difference
Team
xG difference
Actual goal difference
xG difference vs. GD
1. New England
14
24
+10
2. Philadelphia
9
13
+4
3. Nashville
10
22
+12
4. NYCFC
26
20
-6
5. Atlanta
0
8
+8
6. Orlando
-2
2
+4
7. Red Bulls
6
6
0
8. D.C. United
11
2
-9
9. Columbus
-2
1
+3
10. Montréal
4
2
-2
11. Inter Miami
-21
-17
+4
12. Chicago
-9
-18
-9
13. Toronto
-16
-27
-11
14. Cincinnati
-20
-37
-17
Western Conference standings vs. xG differential
Western Conference standings vs. xG differential
Team
xG difference
Actual goal difference
xG difference vs. GD
1. Colorado
7
16
+9
2. Seattle
10
20
+10
3. Sporting KC
1
18
+17
4. Portland
-7
4
+11
5. Minnesota
7
-2
-9
6. Vancouver
-10
0
+10
7. Real Salt Lake
-2
1
+3
8. LA Galaxy
2
-4
-6
9. LAFC
21
2
-19
10. San Jose
-10
-8
+2
11. FC Dallas
-8
-9
-1
12. Austin
-13
-21
-8
13. Houston
-9
-18
-9