Analysis

Armchair Analyst: Pozuelo to TFC & your Qs answered in the mailbag


Toronto FC finally put a steady hand on the wheel and began turning their ship away from the looming iceberg on Saturday, shaking off their CCL humiliation with a 3-1 road win at Philadelphia to open the regular season. In fact it was a great start to the regular season – there is simply no better beginning than to go beat a conference rival at their own house given the new (and, quite frankly, improved) playoff format.


Step 2 in what the folks up there in Red hope will be both a significant and permanent turnaround came on Monday, when they announced the acquisition of Spanish playmaker Alejandro Pozuelo.


I will not pretend to have seen him play more than two or three times – and none of those were in games in which I was actually focusing on him. I can't give you a full-on breakdown of how he should affect the game until I've seen him lace 'em up in MLS.


I do know that the name I've heard most when asking folks around the league and throughout Europe about him is "Lodeiro." I do know that he was regarded as the best player on the best team in Belgium, and has arguably been the best player in Belgium outright. I do know that despite their 5-4-1 and their three goals on Saturday, TFC would really like to move to more of a 4-3-3 and get on the ball more, and lean in completely to juego de posicion.


If Pozuelo is the guy who I think he is, and who they think he is, he should help. A lot.


"He's a creative No. 10, a maestro" is how TFC general manager Ali Curtis put it on Monday afternoon, emphasizing that Pozuelo is not a like-for-like replacement for Sebastian Giovinco, but rather part of a larger solution that is designed to change the way TFC play as an entire unit. And naturally, there will be more pieces – including at least one TAM player, likely on the wing – on the way.


But don't forget this: They gave up five goals in two legs to Independiente, and could easily have given up five more to Philly over the weekend (Union fans have to be real sick of seeing shoddy finishing). The defense still needs tending to.


Now let's jump into the mailbag:

Of course I'm going to answer this one first, and there are lots of potential good answers:


  • Ezequiel Barco. It's not a coincidence that Atlanta dominated the one game in which he played well, and were dominated in the two games in which he couldn't do anything meaningful.
  • Diego Rossi. If they want to go from "fun, attacking team" to "arguably the best team in the league," Rossi – who's already excellent – needs to find another gear.
  • Mark McKenzie. Notice he wasn't in the lineup on Saturday? Apparently he had a very rough preseason. If he can get his confidence (and his starting spot) back, he could be a ready-made solution for Philly.
  • Jaylin Lindsey. Given the new tactical look Peter Vermes has thrown out there, with the right back as more of a central defender than overlapper or possession fulcrum, Lindsey might actually be better suited against certain opponents than Graham Zusi (who struggled against Rossi) is.


There are probably a half-dozen other shouts as well, including guys like Djordje Mihailovic, Efrain Alvarez, Cole Bassett and Josue Colman, all of whom played significant roles in Week 1.


But the answer is Paxton Pomykal. The FC Dallas forwards collectively held their hands up after their 1-1 draw against the Revs and said "we have to be more clinical in front of net," but they were kind of lying. The real issue was in central midfield, where the starting trio of Jacori Hayes, Bryan Acosta and Carlos Gruezo is just too paint-by-numbers in terms of their passing to break down a well-organized defense.


Pomykal isn't, and for a good long while this preseason it looked like he'd won the starting job as the forward-most of that three-man group, and would do the heavy lifting in terms of creativity.


It didn't work out that way – Pomykal started the season on the bench, and the Dallas midfield was mostly bereft of ideas. They generated almost nothing against the Revs.


Since Hayes limped off with what looked like a hamstring injury, Pomykal will almost definitely start in Week 2 against the Galaxy (3:30 pm ET; Univision, Twitter in US | MLS LIVE on DAZN in Canada). He's got to do what Mihailovic did for about 60 minutes against LA in Week 1 in terms of getting on the ball, finding runners through the lines, and creating chances.


If he doesn't do that, I don't think anybody else in that Dallas group will. And then the problem won't really be the forwards and their finishing, will it?


It's a lot of pressure for a 19-year-old. But he's been a pro for four years and can't be a kid anymore. His team needs him.


(For the record, I only considered players who are eligible for 22 Under 22 in this answer, which basically means anyone born after October 15, 1997).


March 4, 2019

In terms of pure entertainment nothing does more for me than watching a team that just passes the hell out of the ball, and thus I have begun the season fully and unrepentantly in love with Sporting KC. I'll go ahead and see LAFC, Seattle, D.C. United (!!!), Chicago (!!!) and – yes, Minnesota United on the side.


Of those six Minnesota were the most linear in Week 1 as central midfielders Ozzie Alonso and Jan Gregus didn't really ever stray too far forward, and the fullbacks were pretty un-adventurous. The level of interchange wasn't quite what it was with the five ahead of them.


But yeah, it was a fun start to the year for the Loons. When you have a front four that's as mobile and skilled as their happens to be, it probably makes sense to just hold the back six back and provide a solid platform/foundation for the attack to work off of.

I think they absolutely are a contender for the top three in the East – I had them fourth in my preseason predictions behind RBNY, Atlanta and D.C. If either of those three teams falter, Montreal are the ones I'd wager largest on to climb the ladder.


If the question was actually "what's Montreal missing to be a favorite for the top 3 in the East?" I would say a second lethal goalscorer. You know that Ignacio Piatti's going to get you 15 if he stays healthy, but beyond that nobody really scares opposing defenses. Guys like Saphir Taider and Maxi Urruti have had some success in MLS (Taider is probably the most underrated player in the league at the moment), but if those are your second- and third-best goalscorers heading into the summer, there's at least a little bit of an issue.


They could use more backline depth as well.

Invalid premise. "Bobby" is not actually his first name.

I am still highly skeptical of the 3-4-3 they've been playing, which has tended to look much more like a janky 5-4-1 in those two losses you mentioned. Or even a 5-2-2-1 if you're feeling the need to highlight the separate lines of midfield that have been so easily severed for 180 of the season's 270 minutes thus far.


And there's the answer. I think the tactical approach (possession through the middle, penetration via the wingbacks) can work in the right circumstances, but "the right circumstances" means "Eric Remedi and Darlington Nagbe/Jeff Larentowicz don't get played off the field." Russell Canouse and Junior Moreno ate them for lunch on Sunday, just as the Herediano central midfield did a week-and-a-half ago and, well, at that point the math's pretty easy to do.


If Atlanta's deep central midfielders are losing the battle there, then the wingbacks have to drop back deeper to help get on the ball and ideally shuttle it forward. But with the wingbacks deeper, that's left the attacking midfielders bereft of support in the few instances they actually have gotten on the ball, and basically put them into a situation where they have to go 1-v-3 and pull off a miracle to generate anything. There's no width, no options, and basically nothing to do but try to Jay-Jay Okocha it into the attacking third.


Not great odds of that working with any consistency.


I'll admit I still don't know who, on Atlanta, this formation is supposed to spotlight and get the best out of. It's certainly not Josef Martinez, who probably checked back to help in possession more at D.C. than he did in his first two years in MLS, and so far it isn't Pity Martinez, either.


As I said on Monday's Extratime: I am scared to see what happens in Atlanta against Monterrey. I don't think they've worked out enough kinks yet.

I honestly thought his ceiling was going to be "nice, energetic winger who's probably best off in the long-term as a wingback or maybe even converting fulltime to fullback." I'd say his best sustained run of form was with Xolos when he was actually playing almost exclusively as a wingback in a 3-5-2.


But the dude's making me rethink. First off, he doesn't get enough credit for the two solid months he gave D.C. in central midfield last year when their season was in danger of falling apart. Nobody's going to mistake him for Iniesta out there, but he was smart and rugged and combative and skillful enough in tough spots to make it all worth something.


Then he's showed, both for the USMNT and D.C. so far across three matches, that he maybe wants to be more (and is maybe capable of being more) than just a plus alpha. I thought United would be at their best when Arriola was their fourth-best attacker, someone who took up the gaps that other, more creative types made. Against Atlanta, though, he was the best player on the pitch, and was annihilating whoever the Five Stripes threw at him. RIP LGP:

Truth be told, I still don't think he tops out as a Best XI-caliber winger, not with guys like Piatti, Carlos Vela and Pity (he hasn't showed it yet, but trust me, it's there) in this league, and I don't think he's going to be a write-it-in-pen starter for the USMNT, either.


But that's ok. Because of his engine, brain and defensive commitment, he's always going to get chances. Because he keeps improving more glamorous aspects of his game like end product and 1v1 ability, it looks like he's going to make the most of those chances.


If I were a D.C. fan I'd be pretty stoked to have him on the roster.

Here's a list:


  • I don't think there's an objectively better five-man attack (I'm counting Brad Smith as an attacker) in MLS than what Seattle put out there.
  • You won't be as good defensively without Ozzie, but you'll still be pretty damn good!
  • Jordan Morris has clearly worked on his left foot.
  • Victor Rodriguez played like a man free of any off-the-field concerns, or injuries.
  • They're definitely going to use that open DP spot for an upgrade somewhere come summer.

I'm giving them the mulligan for Saturday night. I think I'm giving them a second mulligan for the beating they're gonna taking this coming weekend at Atlanta.


It becomes about the match on March 17 at 5 pm ET in a game on FS1 at Nippert Stadium against the Portland Timbers. It's FC Cincinnati's first home game as an MLS team, and they're almost certainly going into that one on zero points and with a pretty bloody goal differential, and these fans – who've seen nothing but wins in the USL over the past few years – will let them know, in no uncertain terms, that it's about the match.


But yeah, mulligans for Weeks 1 & 2.

Loons fans come get your man.

So I didn't really doubt LAFC – I picked them to win the Supporters' Shield – but I did have a gnawing worry that they'd still be soft and sloppy when trying to close out games, and could be pushed around and off the pitch.


Then they just kept punching Sporting directly in the face in what really looked and felt like a playoff game, which culminated with Adama Diomande's late winner. They didn't win beautifully, they won with toughness. And that's not something I could say all that often in 2018.


NYCFC, meanwhile, just fanned the flames. They played a 4-3-3 that morphed into a 5-2-3, which... fine. It's very clever.


What's not so clever is that the hit fully 24 percent of their passes long – easily the highest percent in the league in Week 1 – which doesn't make a whole lot of sense given the stature of their forward and wingers. They played last year's team MVP out of position (Maxi Moralez is not a No. 9 of any sort), they never took advantage of Orlando City's inability to track runners out of midfield, and their subs didn't make a ton of sense.


I don't understand what Dome Torrent is building toward.

Extremely low. Santos Laguna got drilled this past weekend, but they've been playing some excellent soccer for the past six weeks. Monterrey struggled in the Round of 16, but they're unbeaten in the Clausura for a reason. Tigres are on a six-game winning streak.


RBNY are a coinflip against Santos. Atlanta and Houston are clear underdogs. And while Sporting are favored against Independiente, ask Toronto how that goes.


I'd be happy with two teams and outright thrilled with three.


I expect just one, though. My attitude with regard to CCL is the same as it's always been: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

If one of Brian White or Mathias Jorgensen was up top and Omir Fernandez could drop back either to the No. 10 role or as an attacking winger, I'd say so. Right now I'd say they're pretty easily the deepest team in the league – though with Michael Murillo suspended and Kemar Lawrence maybe hurt for the first leg against Santos, they're stretched pretty thin at fullback.

Still on Toronto's roster! They're shopping him for someone else's disgruntled/underused veteran. No takers so far, obviously, but things can definitely change.

Morris, Arriola and Mihailovic were the three big winners, I'd say. I'd expect all three of them to be in this month's camp, which will be announced sometime in the next 10 days, I'm guessing.


That's it for this week! See you back here in seven days and we'll discuss Week 2.