What do advanced stats say about the playoff teams? | Expected Goals

The Audi 2017 MLS Cup Playoffs are upon us.


After a wild Decision Day presented by AT&T, the bracket is set and we will see eight teams do battle on Wednesday and Thursday to see who advances into the Conference Semifinals.


With 34 games in the books, we can look back and see who were the best teams in the league at creating the best chances and conceding the fewest chances. You can see each playoff teams expected goal differential below; while this may not offer an exact portrayal of each team's strength, it does give a sense of who might have the best chance of winning MLS Cup.

What do advanced stats say about the playoff teams? | Expected Goals - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/xGD%20playoffs%202017.png?poiv2BwLlwiAvf2LJHlNS0RtO6Jw5CRl

With that, we'll dive into the xG numbers from Week 33. A couple of important notes before looking at the numbers: Penalties have a value of 0.79, and own goals are not factored into the values.

Game
Result
Home xG
Away xG
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC
3-2
2.41
.26
Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC
2-1
2.59
.36
Atlanta United vs. Toronto FC
2-2
2.95
1.87
D.C. United vs. New York Red Bulls
1-2
1.57
2.08
Seattle Sounders vs. Colorado Rapids
3-0
3.64
1.32
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City
2-1
1.47
2.03
Montreal Impact vs. New England Revolution
2-3
2.02
1.57
Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire
3-0
1.79
.67
Philadelphia Union vs. Orlando City SC
6-1
3.29
1.37
FC Dallas vs. LA Galaxy
5-1
3.78
.55
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew SC
2-2
2.69
1.30
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