Toronto FC's dominance showing in xG data | Expected Goals

Toronto FC head coach Greg Vanney decided not to bring star forwards Sebastian Giovinco and Jozy Altidore to Los Angeles this weekend. Instead they allowed them to rest some minor injuries before the stretch run of the season. It didn't matter.


TFC trounced the Galaxy to the tune of a 4-0 scoreline on Saturday night at StubHub Center as they continued their chase of history. Greg Vanney's team have now won six in a row for the second time this season and are currently on an 11-match unbeaten run heading into a big week with games against Montreal on Wednesday (7:30 pm ET; TSN, TVA Sports in Canada | MLS LIVE in US) and in New England on Saturday (5 pm ET; TSN in Canada | MLS LIVE in US).


Their +37 goal differential is by far the best in the league, with Atlanta currently in a distant second at +22, and that kind of dominance is starting to show in expected goals data provided by Opta. For much of the season Toronto have had an xGD, that is their expected goal difference on average based on the quality of chances they created and conceded, similar to that of New York City FC and the Revs. That has begun to change.

Toronto FC's dominance showing in xG data | Expected Goals - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/xGD%209-18-17.png?fynSxULdPWA2HxufEpcn8a8TfX1uMs0s

As you can see in the chart above, Toronto have clearly been the best team so far when looking at this statistic. They're currently No. 2 in both xG and xGA. Their attack is led by Giovinco (12), Altidore (17) and Victor Vazquez (19), all of him rank in the top 19 when looking at their individual xG+xA. They are the only team to have three players ranking that high.


It's clear that Toronto have been by far the best team in MLS so far this season, with little showing that anybody else should be considered.


With that, we'll dive into the xG numbers from Week 28. A couple of important notes before looking at the numbers: Penalties have a value of .79, and own goals are not factored into the values.

Game
Result
Home xG
Away xG
Atlanta United vs. New England Revolution
7-0
4.51
0
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Minnesota United FC
3-0
2.60
.59
Atlanta United vs. Orlando City SC
3-3
2.11
1.23
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Columbus Crew SC
2-2
1.80
.93
Montreal Impact vs. Minnesota United FC
2-3
2.18
1.60
FC Dallas vs. Seattle Sounders
0-0
.60
.31
Sporting Kansas City vs. New England Revoluiton
3-1
2.74
.23
Chicago Fire vs. D.C. United
3-0
2.63
1.05
Colorado Rapids vs. New York City FC
1-1
1.05
1.21
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers
2-1
2.72
.90
LA Galaxy vs. Toronto FC
0-4
.20
1.71
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Houston Dynamo
1-0
1.68
.86
New York Red Bulls vs. Philadelphia Union
0-0
1.44
.34
Toronto FC's dominance showing in xG data | Expected Goals - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/Opta-MLS-lockup.jpg