The Audi 2016 MLS Cup Playoffs are finally here, but by the end of the Knockout Round games on Thursday evening, four teams will already be in offseason mode.
Which four will they be? It certainly looks like tough sledding for the teams who are hitting the road, taking into account both form and the historical struggles of away sides in these games. In the 12 Knockout Round games that have taken place since they were introduced in 2011, the road team has prevailed just twice.
So with Montreal traveling to D.C. and Philadelphia heading to Toronto in the East, plus RSL going to the LA Galaxy and Sporting Kansas City off to Seattle in the West, which of these four away teams has the best chance of beating the odds and making it to the Conference Semifinals?
We got Contributors Dave Zeitlin and Sam Stejskal, Senior Editors Andrew Wiebe and Ben Couch, as well as Editor-in-Chief Simon Borg to weigh in. Be sure to make your picks in the 2016 Bracket Challenge and let us know in the comments below!
COUCH: A Sporting chance…
Welp. I should qualify this by acknowledging I went all home all day in my Bracket Challenge entry. That said, we can X off Philly (Case of the Ugh) and RSL (no goals, no going forward). Then it’s down to a tough call to eliminate Montreal (Piatti! But which squad shows?) because Sporting KC have been there before and were a double-post away from knocking off the eventual champs a year ago. Discipline matters when wackiness seeps in during the silly season, and if Peter Vermes is known for anything …
WIEBE: If anyone, it's…
I'm firmly in the home-team sweep camp – there's a reason visitors are two for 12 all-time in the Knockout Round – but I see a glimmer of hope for Montreal. Yes, D.C. Are rampant right now, but the Impact are built to absorb pressure on the road then hit at pace via the Piatti-Oduro-Mancosu triumvirate. Think back to those CCL performances en route to the final. Now, Benny Ball isn't what it used to be and it'll also take an inspired defensive performance from Mauro Biello's boys, but the scent of upset is there, if still a bit faint.
BORG: Throw out the form guide
Yes, the Philadelphia Union are winless in their last seven matches. But if you can get past the stats for a moment – it's not like those streaks last forever, anyway – they're more talented than their record says they are. And they've rarely been out of their depth on the road this year. Philly's balance, toughness and physicality will make them an uncomfortable opponent for a Toronto FC team that want to beat you with skill, technique and passing – not with brute force.
And don't think for a moment that the expectations and pressure of their first home playoff match won't weigh some on Toronto, who have experienced several moments this year when they've appeared shaken by adversity. Plus, TFC are only 1-2-3 in their last six matches at BMO Field. But who's looking at stats?
STEJSKAL: Star power could swing it
I’m picking all four home teams in the Knockout Round, but the game that gave me the most pause was the Impact-D.C. matchup. Even without Didier Drogba, Montreal will still have the best player on the field on Thursday in Ignacio Piatti. If he can rip off an outrageous performance – something he’s certainly more than capable of doing – then the Impact, who struggled down the stretch, will have a decent chance of advancing past red-hot United.
ZEITLIN: Union can spoil the party
While Toronto FC are my pick to win it all, I'll hedge my bet here and go with the Union as a team primed for a first-round upset. Is it unlikely for a team winless in its last seven to go on the road and beat a star-studded club like Toronto? Certainly. But Philly have a couple of things going for them, starting with a guy by the name of Andre Blake, who's more than capable of making a couple of monster saves and carrying a team on his back. It's also a positive sign that the Union just went to Toronto a month ago and battled them to a 1-1 draw in a game they controlled early. And you can be sure that the motivation of extending top playmaker's Tranquillo Barnetta MLS career will have the Union buzzing as they look to spoil the party in Canada.
