Copa America Simulation: Argentina projected to win, USA won't advance

Copa America Centenario is set to start on Friday night as the US national team will face Colombia at Levi's Stadium (9:30 pm ET, FS1). What we don't know is who will be there at the end of the tournament on June 26 at MetLife Stadium.

But thanks to a model, we can try and predict who will be there and who are favorites to get out of their group.

The following projections are found by simulating the entire tournament 100,000 times. Individual games are simulated using a statistical model that estimates how the two teams would be expected to fare against one another based on their respective FIFA rankings. The model was also built using results from past Copa America and Gold Cup.

Argentina is the favorite

Argentina is the favorite via this model, with a 38.53 percent chance of lifting the trophy. This is unsurprising, as Lionel Messi’s side is currently ranked No. 1 in the world. The model gives the USMNT a 1.10 percent chance of winning the tournament, while Bolivia and Haiti are the biggest underdogs, each with a mere 0.20 percent chance of being crowned champion.

United States not projected to advance

Klinsmann and the US are in a tough group and have a 37.69 percent chance of advancing to the knockout rounds – this breaks down to a 9.03 percent chance of winning Group A and a 28.67 percent chance of finishing second in the group. USA has a 14.25 percent chance of advancing to the semifinals and a 3.79 percent chance of advancing to the final in East Rutherford.

Chances of reaching the quarterfinals:

GROUP A

GROUP B

GROUP C

GROUP D

Chances of winning Copa America Centenario:

Topics: