22WC-US-clinch-scenarios

The scenario for the US men's national team at the 2022 FIFA World Cup is simple: win and you are in.

USA will clinch a berth in the Round of 16 if:

  • USA win vs. Iran

USA will be eliminated if:

  • USA draw or lose vs. Iran

Chance of advancing (Group B)

USA are an underdog to surpass Iran in Tuesday's Group B finale (2 pm ET | FOX, Telemundo). FiveThirtyEight gives the USMNT the third-best chance to advance:

  • England: >99%
  • Iran: 58%
  • USA: 38%
  • Wales: 5%

USA can still win Group B

  • USA earn first place in Group B if USA win AND England lose to Wales
  • USA earn first place in Group B if USA win by 5 or more goals AND England draw Wales

Related: USA earn second place in Group B if USA win AND England beat Wales

Group B standings - Matchday 2
Team
Points
Record
Goals (for, against, GD)
1. England
4
1W-0L-1D
6; 2; +4
2. Iran
3
1W-1L-0L
4; 6; -2
3. USA
2
0W-0L-2D
1; 1; 0
4. Wales
1
0W-1L-1D
1; 3; -2

World Cup group standings tiebreakers

  1. Goal differential
  2. Goals scored
  3. Head-to-head result
  4. Goal differential in matches between tied teams (only in three-way tie)
  5. Goals scored in matches between tied teams (only in three-way tie)
  6. Fair play tiebreaker (based on negative points for yellow and red cards)
  7. Drawing lots

USA: World Cup results so far