of easily the best MLS season in terms of playoff races, which are tight as 1970s jeans right now -- is upon us. Those two strugglers have three matches each remaining. And they have to win. That's pretty much the only way to see it.
Yes, there are ways that this weekend could come and go with both teams still mathematically alive even if they don't take three points apiece this weekend. But there's also a chance, technically speaking, that Rachael Ray herself will show up at your school or office tomorrow to hand-deliver yummy banana-walnut muffins. In other words, lots of things in this universe are possible -- but most of them probably aren't going to happen.
So the chances of Los Angeles or Toronto realistically staying afloat in the chase will come down to picking up "Ws" on Saturday and Sunday.
The Galaxy sit six points behind third-place Real Salt Lake at the moment. That puts Bruce Arena's scramblers two wins back of the final Western Conference guaranteed berth. And that's before you start factoring in what RSL -- or Colorado, or FC Dallas or San Jose, for that matter -- do over the final three weeks. It all probably leaves Los Angeles battling perhaps seven or eight other teams for one of two wild-card spots - and starting from a position of deficit, based on the current standings.
So the harsh reality is this: it will probably take three wins, and even that might not be enough to keep the Galaxy from missing the playoffs for a third consecutive season. The run of win-or-else begins Sunday at The Home Depot Center. Arena's side is back at home after two on the road; that's the good news.
The bad news is that scenarios exist that can see L.A. officially eliminated this weekend. The super-bad news is that neither Landon Donovan nor David Beckham, the Galaxy's premier game-changers, will be around to participate in the heroic fight.
Nor will players such as Carl Robinson, Amado Guevara and others be around for Toronto FC. Indeed, if the labyrinth of playoff scenarios doesn't make this dash for spots difficult enough to predict, there is yet another complicating factor: Lots of teams, just like the Galaxy and Toronto, will be without some premium talent this weekend. Toronto will miss a league-high five starters as they take leave for World Cup qualifier duty.
So John Carver's men at TFC, having remained in the playoff hunt with a massive three points last week at Giants Stadium, must follow their big night outside the Big Apple with another big win away from BMO this weekend. Toronto's chances might remain on mathematic life support with a loss or tie at FC Dallas this weekend, but a first pass through playoff valley would be difficult to imagine at that point. Still, hope prevails for now -- and that's something.
"Everybody has written us off, but we showed that it's not over yet," Carver said. "It will be a very difficult task, but we will work hard this week to prepare for the game at Dallas, although we will be missing a number of players on international duty."
You could more or less put D.C. United in that group that has already waded into unofficial playoff season. That has more to do with United's difficult schedule. Next week's home contest against New England is sandwiched between visits to Houston and Columbus -- the clubs that you'd have to say are now favored to meet at MLS Cup 2008.
Tom Soehn's team can possibly afford to lose one of its remaining three. But anything less than six of a possible nine points will makes things extremely difficult for the Black and Red's postseason ambitions.
Flip this thing around and you'll note some sides who are looking pretty good in the hunt for one of eight postseason spots. (Other than the three already to have qualified, Columbus, Houston and New England.) Chicago and Chivas USA have a good chance of officially nailing down spots this weekend. There are even some not-so-far-flung scenarios that could see them safely into the "tournament" before they kick off their weekend matches, depending on Thursday's result inside the debuting Rio Tinto Stadium in Salt Lake City.
Speaking of which: the happenings in Utah on Thursday make quite a statement about what a spectacular overall playoff race this is. Rio Tinto Stadium represents the seventh facility built specifically for an MLS side. Given the importance of dedicated venues in the bigger MLS development picture, nothing generally trumps facility growth in terms of generating excitement and media hullabaloo. Well, almost nothing.
In a playoff chase like no other, even the unveiling of such a fabulous facility drifts a little further in the background when postseason berths are so gloriously at stake.
PLAYOFF RESET
If the playoffs were today:
East
No. 1 Columbus vs. No. 4 New York
No. 2 New England vs. No. 3 Chicago
West
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Colorado
No. 2 Chivas USA vs. No. 3 Real Salt Lake
Round 29 matches (home teams listed first)
Thursday
Real Salt Lake vs. New York
Saturday
Kansas City vs. New England
FC Dallas vs. Toronto
San Jose vs. Chivas USA
Sunday
Chicago vs. Columbus
Houston vs. D.C. United
Los Angeles vs. Colorado
Already qualified: Columbus, New England, Houston.
Spots still up for grabs: 11 teams are fighting for five remaining spots.
Games remaining: 12 teams have played 27 of 30 matches; Houston and San Jose have played just 26, with four remaining.
Most significant games of the week: Two teams sitting on 35 points meet on a cool, historic Utah night in a match that's significant for more than the ample playoff implications. It's also the debut of Real Salt Lake's Rio Tinto Stadium.
Once the pomp and circumstance dies down over the stadium's grand opening, two desperate teams will kick off -- and the result will probably provide some good progress toward untangling the overall playoff knot. Real Salt Lakes plays host to the New York Red Bulls during the ESPN2 national telecast. The Red Bulls, having dropped two at home lately, will be without Venezuelan internationals Gabriel Cichero and Jorge Rojas. Andy Williams will miss the match for RSL, after picking up a red card late in last weekend's match.
Also out West, the Los Angeles-Colorado match has the sniff of an elimination contest. A loss is all but certain to finish off Galaxy hopes. A loss for the Rapids won't kill off hopes for interim manager Gary Smith and his side -- but it will make the postseason target significantly tougher to hit.
Men of the moment: With Beckham and Donovan looking to do the business for their countries, the burden of scoring for Los Angeles will fall on Edson Buddle. Like the rest of the Galaxy, his rate of production has fallen since Bruce Arena arrival heralded renewed attention to defense. Buddle had 12 goals through early August, but has just one in eight Galaxy matches since.
For Toronto, Jim Brennan and Marvell Wynne will lead a depleted back line. Wynne has been in midfield lately, and his big dash on a brilliantly executed counterattack provided last week's game-winner against New York. But he may be forced back to defense this week as Tyrone Marshall and Kevin Harmse are slated for World Cup qualifier action. And TFC will need the defensive attention to deal with Jeff Cunningham, who will surely be gunning to sting the team that traded him to Dallas earlier this year.
Veteran San Jose center back Nick Garcia will need to be at his best against hot Chivas USA striker Alecko Eskandarian, who has scored in three consecutive matches for Preki's absurdly resilient side. The Red-and-White travel up the coast to play at Buck Shaw, where San Jose's last contest ended in a surprising loss to Real Salt Lake.
Finally, someone needs to re-stabilize the foundering Red Bulls defense. Given the poor run of form lately for New York defenders, it might be down to goalkeeper Jon Conway. He was having a good season, but he can't feel great about conceding 11 goals in three games, even if he's been left on his own too many times over that period.
Steve Davis is a freelance writer who has covered Major League Soccer since its inception. Steve can be reached at BigTexSoccer@yahoo.com. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author's, and not necessarily those of Major League Soccer or MLSnet.com.
