Behind talisman Lionel Messi, Inter Miami will attempt to reach the semifinals of the Leagues Cup Friday at DRV Pink Stadium versus Charlotte FC.
At FC Dallas in the round of 16, manager Tata Martino’s squad received its closest match of the Messi era. Tied 4-4 at the end of regular time, the visitors eventually won on penalties.
Regarding Charlotte FC, they enter this match unbeaten in four fixtures (W2-D2) and pulled off a remarkable comeback in the round of 16. Assisted by two Houston Dynamo goalkeeper errors, Charlotte earned a 2-1 home win.
This is Nick Hennion from The Game Day with your preview and best bet for Inter Miami versus Charlotte FC.
Inter Miami vs Charlotte FC Odds
Inter Miami vs Charlotte FC betting lines are current as of Wednesday, Aug. 9, at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Three-Way Moneyline: Inter Miami (-190) • Draw (+310) • Charlotte FC (+425)
- Total Goals: Over 3.5 (+130) • Under 3.5 (-190)
- Both Teams To Score: Yes (-160) • No (+110)
Inter Miami vs Charlotte FC Match Prediction
Inter Miami 2:2 Charlotte FC (Inter Miami advances on penalties)
This is a tricky match to predict, as you have one overperforming team going against a statistically weak defense.
For all of their success, Miami’s offensive prowess is largely undeserved. In four Leagues Cup matches Martino’s squad has scored 13 goals off six big scoring chances.
Their defense has simultaneously come up very lucky, conceding six goals against nine big scoring chances.
However, it’s worth noting most of that overperformance came against Cruz Azul, who scored once off four big chances.
The critical question is whether Miami’s attack regresses against a weak Charlotte defense. In MLS this season, Charlotte allows 1.35 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, the fifth-worst mark in the league.
On the flip side, Charlotte enters this match as a positive regression candidate offensively. Through four Leagues Cup matches, they’ve scored eight goals off 10 big scoring chances.
Against FC Dallas, against whom Miami conceded three big chances, Charlotte generated two big chances.
Thus, don’t expect a sharp performance from the Miami defense. After all, this is a side that has conceded 1.53 npxG per 90 minutes in MLS, albeit before the arrival of their European reinforcements.
Inter Miami vs Charlotte FC Best Bet
Both Teams to Score - “Yes” (-145) • Caesars Sportsbook
It’s a steep price to lay on both teams to score, but this is essentially a bet against both defenses.
Truthfully, this is a creative bet on Charlotte FC to find the back of the net. Through four Leagues Cup matches, they’ve kept only one clean sheet.
Plus, for all of Miami’s pre-Messi struggles, they still created north of one expected goal per 90 at DRV Pink Stadium. Add in their -900 to score, and the onus is on Charlotte here.
In good news for the visitors, Miami’s aging legs should concede, given the condensed schedule.
Although we hate buying high off two improbable tallies against Houston, the fact remains Miami has kept only one clean sheet, which was undeserved based on expected goals.