In this year’s MLS Cup Playoffs, presented by AT&T, a new rule was introduced, the “away-goals rule.” Basically, it means that away goals are used as the first tiebreaker in the event that the aggregate score is equal.
One of the intended effects of this system is to encourage away teams to play with a more attacking outlook. So how is it working through the four first legs of the Conference Semifinals?
We'll start with the most obvious stat: goals. The New England Revolution put up four goals and 18 shots away to the Columbus Crew. But the other three away teams -- D.C. United, the Seattle Sounders, and the LA Galaxy -- combined for just one goal, and that includes the two highest-scoring teams in the league, the Sounders and Galaxy.
All but the Revs relied more on their defending acumen than their attack, which resulted in some of the lowest attacking statistics they have posted over the past four seasons.
Altogether, through four games in the conference semifinals, the away teams have seen their passing and shot-creation numbers drop off from their regular-season numbers. Playing against playoff-caliber teams, of course, will have that effect. But even when looking at how the home team's statistics have dropped off, the away team's differences stand out.
Passing Accuracy in Regular Season vs. Playoff Semifinals
Shots and Chances Created in Regular Season vs. Playoff Semifinals
Obviously, four games is not an adequate sample size when comparing against 323 games. And even with the new rule changes, this kind of defensive play by away teams is not entirely out of character in the playoffs. Since 2011, away teams have seen their shots drop by more than 1.5 per game and their passing accuracy drop by more than three percentage points in the playoffs comapred to the regular season.
Most likely, though, we will see the effect of the away-goals rule manifest itself in the second legs, especially in the West. Both FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake know that if they push and try and score the first goal of the game, the pressure will shift back to the home sides. The Columbus Crew have a tough task of needing to score three goals on the road, without conceding, to advance, while the New York Red Bulls could lose 3-1 and still advance.
This weekend’s games have a chance to show just how this rule will ultimately affect each team’s strategy.
