FiveThirtyEight: Toronto FC’s Supporters’ Shield chances in 2020 MLS season double

Jonathan Sigal

Toronto FC are in pole position to add a second Supporters’ Shield to their trophy coffer, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight projections.

A 1-0 win Wednesday night at the New England Revolution saw their Shield chances double to 40%, as Greg Vanney’s group won their fourth straight game and reached six unbeaten (5W-0L-1D). It’s even more remarkable when considering the Reds are playing their home matches in East Hartford, Conn., due to travel limitations from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Away from BMO Field and dealing with injuries to US men’s national team veterans Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore, Toronto have seven games left in the 2020 regular season. All but two – Oct. 24 at the Philadelphia Union and Oct. 28 vs. New York City FC – are against East foes outside that conference’s current top tier.

Toronto sit atop the Shield race with 34 points, though Philadelphia and Columbus Crew SC are close behind on 31 points. The Seattle Sounders, who have a game in hand, are narrowly behind on 30 points, a total Orlando City SC have also reached.

Toronto last won the Supporters’ Shield in 2017, the same year they completed the treble by winning MLS Cup and the Canadian Championship. They’re in this year’s Canadian Championship final, too, and await a match against Canadian Premier League winners Forge FC. MLS Cup runners up in 2019, they’re led by an MVP-caliber season from midfielder Alejandro Pozuelo, as the Spanish playmaker has seven goals and nine assists in 16 matches.

As for who FiveThirtyEight projects as MLS Cup favorites? That’s still Seattle with 15% odds, though Toronto aren’t far behind at 13%. Much can change during this unpredictable year, but perhaps we’ll get a rematch when MLS Cup is played Dec. 12.

Check out the full projections here, and digest the current Shield and MLS Cup favorites below: