FiveThirtyEight: Crew SC favored over Red Bulls; NYCFC outlook bleak

We're just 90 (or 120) minutes away from determining the final four teams standing in the 2018 MLS campaign.

After Portland's epic shootout win over Seattle on Thursday night to book the first spot in the Western Conference Championship, the remaining three Conference Semifinal series hang in the balance, with no team more than a goal to the good. But not all one-goal leads are created equal, thanks to away goals and leg two venues.

The folks at FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers to tell us who is likeliest to progress to the two Conference Championships on Sunday:

NY Red Bulls vs. Columbus Crew SC

Taking a 1-0 lead to Red Bull Arena for Leg Two, Columbus Crew SC are in a solid position. FiveThirtyEight has their probabilities of advancing over the record-setting New York Red Bulls at 58 percent. Crew SC remain the only Eastern Conference team to not lose to the Red Bulls this year.

Atlanta United vs. New York City FC

The outlook is even more bleak for RBNY's archrivals New York City FC. Heading south for their second leg with a 1-0 deficit, the Cityzens have the worst chance of the remaining teams to progress in the eyes of FiveThirtyEight: just 16 percent.

Sporting Kansas City vs. Real Salt Lake

In the West, Real Salt Lake were unable to turn the most possession that Sporting Kansas City has surrendered in a game since 2015 into a win, as Diego Rubio's 60th minute equalizer ensured the sides would head into the second leg tied 1-1.

Under this scenario, SKC have a 77 percent chance of advancing, according to 538.

Looking ahead: MLS Cup

Atlanta are now seen with the best chance to lift MLS Cup, at 35 percent. SKC trail with 23 percent, followed by the Red Bulls with 16 percent.  

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