What Expected Goals can tell us about Columbus Crew SC's attack so far

Columbus Crew SC did not start off the 2017 season the way they had hoped, earning a draw at home against the Chicago Fire and losing 3-1 at the Houston Dynamo. But over the last two weeks, their fortunes have changed.

Last week they traveled to the nation's capital and beatD.C. United 2-0 at RFK Stadium and on Saturday they took down the Western Conference leaders, beating the Portland Timbers 3-2. Looking at their expected goals numbers so far, provided by Opta, the last two wins are no surprise.

Crew SC are one of only two teams who are averaging two expected goals per game, the other being the Timbers, who had the benefit of playing against a Minnesota United FC defense that has been historically bad so far. Gregg Berhalter's side have simply been exceptional in creating quality chances in their first four games.

Justin Meram has had a big hand in those numbers, as he has created chances that have amounted to an xG value of 1.63. That number is the highest of any player in MLS. Of course he's had the opportunity to play in four games as opposed to the three most players have. Meram's finishing so far has not been up to his chance creating as he would have been expected to score 1.87 goals on average given the quality of his chances, but has scored just once.

Despite his three goals, Ola Kamara's finishing has also not been at an All-Star level so far either. He would have been expected to score 3.18 goals on average given the quality of his chances, so his three-goal output is actually below average.

If Crew SC's finishing can line up to their chance creation quality going forward, there's little doubt they will be near top of the Eastern Conference towards the end of the season.

Two important notes before looking at Week 4's xG numbers: Penalties have a value of .79, and own goals are not factored into the values.