It used to be that the beautiful game consisted of one statistic: the final score. It's still the only one that counts, but there are many more numbers to crunch and ponder these days. From shots on goal to ball possession and the mind-boggling size of debt-ridden clubs' interest repayments, the data available to soccer geeks is now infinity plus one. And as anyone who has read "Soccernomics" knows, there is a lot more to soccer stats than meets the eye. One stat caught my eye this week: Carlos Queiroz's Portugal was unbeaten in 2009.
According to FIFA.com, "four of the leading teams in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking remained unbeaten in 2009." That quartet includes Ivory Coast, the Netherlands, Nigeria and Portugal. The Ivorians and the Dutch were dominant in World Cup qualifying, so no surprise there. The Super Eagles played Mozambique, Kenya and Jamaica in five of their nine games and, while hardly setting the world on fire, didn't attract the worldwide ink that the so-called struggles of Queiroz's undefeated team did.
The former MetroStars head coach led the Seleçao das Quinas to a record of 9 wins, 3 ties and no defeats in 2009, yet for most of the year entered every match anticipating that any loss would see him looking for a new job soon afterwards. At the 2010 FIFA World Cup draw in December, Portugal was quickly predicted to be the odd team out from the Group of Death's trio of Dementors (not even "Soccernomics" can save North Korea). But perhaps it's time to take a second look at Portugal.
Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, the authors of "Soccernomics," look at football through the prism of spreadsheets, mathematical formulas more difficult to fathom than Diego Maradona's Argentina team selections, and the factors of population, GDP and national team history. They also acknowledge the role of fan expectations (and punch many statistical holes in said expectations) in evaluating a national team's performance.
Expectations are always going to be high for a team that includes the world's best player. Lest ye forget, Cristiano Ronaldo was the 2008 FIFA World Player of the Year. His diving may be annoying, but his skills are divine. Yet, he didn't score in any of the six World Cup qualifying games he played in last year, and famously missed both legs of the Bosnia-Herzegovina playoff due to injury. That playoff, with Ronaldo sidelined, is where Queiroz showed his mettle as a manager.
At the beginning of 2009, Portugal was coming off a 6-2 thumping by Brazil and had not won a game in its first four World Cup qualifying games. It's little wonder that Queiroz was under pressure. But his success in 2009 drew few headlines. Perhaps that's the nature of the football beast, but in a World Cup year it would be foolish to ignore a team whose coach clearly has the support of his locker room.
With last year's Real Madrid transfer saga behind him, a healthy Ronaldo will be much more potent for Portugal in 2010. With the late year addition of Brazilian-born Liedson to the Portugal ranks, Ronaldo might finally have a goal-scoring partner he can count on with the national team. If Pepe can recover from his serious knee injury in time for the World Cup and the likes of Deco, Simao, Ricardo Carvalho and Jose Bosingwa stay healthy and in form, then Portugal could be the surprise team of what promises to be a World Cup full of surprises.
Perception, along with expectations, are often everything in football, and maybe only a World Cup win would turn the negative opinions of Queiroz's Portugal tenure around. Another unbeaten year in 2010 wouldn't hurt either. However, as "Soccernomics" stats crunchers would be quick to point out, going unbeaten at the World Cup does not guarantee you'll win the trophy. Switzerland, England, Argentina and France can attest to that, as none of them officially lost a game at the 2006 World Cup with those pesky penalty-kick shootouts all counting as ties.
As someone famously once said, "Football's a funny old game." No doubt, Carlos Queiroz would agree.
Mark C. Young is an Emmy Award-winning freelance writer/TV producer who has covered several FIFA World Cups and Olympic Games. He is a contributor to Goal.com and also writes for the blog "No Mas."
