I'm a little torn on it all.
This playoff race has been nothing short of intoxicating. And this dandy is going right down to the final hours, as six clubs remain on the dangle, straining to escape the scrum and claim one of those last two, precious spots.
I'm a little sad to watch it all end.
Peeling back all the layers of potential tiebreakers for the final weekend is about like tackling Rubik's cube ... blindfolded. It ain't easy. Here's an attempt to simplify matters just a bit, without drilling too deeply into the hard shale of sundry complicated tiebreaker possibilities.
Gary Smith's Rapids are in the best spot. Well, in one sense, anyway.
The Rapids are in the best spot in that they control what happens. Win and they are in. No other side can say so now.
Of course, winning isn't something that's happening a lot for the Denver side these days, so the psychology doesn't favor Smith's men. For one, it all unfolded in roughly the same way a year ago, with a fateful final-round date against Real Salt Lake. Yura Movsisyan scored late for RSL and the Rapids' playoff ambitions went "poof!" in the cool mountain night.
Into the breach the Rapids will carry the extra weight of a six-game winless streak, as the goals have dried up at Dick's Sporting Goods Park. All that good wide play we once saw on the rampage in Commerce City, so much of it supplied by now-injured Colin Clark, has vanished. The result: only once in this swoon has Colorado scored more than a single goal.
Conor Casey's scoring pace has suffered accordingly; he hasn't scored in the run of play in five matches.
Nor can the Rapids road record (2-7-5) inspire much confidence as they travel for Saturday's kickoff.
On the other hand, the Rapids might have more motivation than RSL when the clubs line up at Rio Tinto. As mentioned, the Rapids know that if they win, nothing else matters. It's far more complicated for the men of Real Salt Lake, who must win and count on significant help from goings-on beyond Utah.
Colorado can also get in with a tie, but they'll need a bunch of losses from that foursome sitting on 39 points.
2. Can Toronto make it?: Surely it has been noted that the five sides with the best odds of wiggling into playoffs are on the road this weekend? On the one hand, it's always nice to clinch a postseason berth at home, amid pomp, circumstance and a sea of scarf-waving crazies.
On the other hand, there is something quite delicious about this particular scenario. At the end of the day, you can surely proclaim that any team winning on the road under circumstances so intense truly deserves that playoff spot.
So it is with Toronto, which needs to win at New York this weekend.
For this match, there's something else still going on here, something that can only make TFC's uphill climb that much more treacherous: Red Bull is closing an important and historic portion of club history. This will be the final MLS match inside Giants Stadium, home to the club for the league's first 14 years, ill-fitting as it may have been.
While everyone is surely excited about Red Bull Arena's impending christening, there's no denying the pull of history here. Giants Stadium, for better or worse, was a critical ground in Major League Soccer's formative years, and Red Bulls members will certainly desire to close the book on such an important place with a win.
If there wasn't enough furniture barring the door between TFC and a first-ever spin on the playoff wheel, Friday's announcement of Albert Celades' impending retirement will move the needle a little further still in the Red Bulls' direction. The players in the home team locker room will surely want to send such a classy performer off with a win.
All of which makes TFC's work ahead that much harder. So too does a rash of injuries along the back like lately, and another one to inspirational midfielder Carl Robinson. Yes, Julian de Guzman and all his ability is now on Toronto's side. But Robinson's veteran wile and influence could surely be of service. Meanwhile, defenders Nana Attakora and Emmanuel Gomez returned to training Thursday and should be available for selection. Marvell Wynne, on the other hand, is still battling a thigh strain and doesn't appear to be ready.
Nor will sensational rookie Stefan Frei take the field, apparently. He has returned to training after recovering sufficiently from a hand injury. But manager Chris Cummins seems intent on maintaining continuity with Brian Edwards, who has performed so admirably in backup duty. Is there risk in deploying Edwards in such a big match, someone with even less experience than Frei? Sure. But at this point, risk is endemic. It's just a matter of where you want the risk to fall.
"I'm not willing to take Brian out of the team because he has come in and done very well," Cummins said. "It would send the wrong message if I take him out of the team now. Stefan knows that he needs to fight his way back into the team and will be disappointed to miss the final game of the season but that is part of the game."
3. Can New England make it?: So much unfortunate injury news has bracketed the Revolution camp in 2009, any good news is welcome around Gillette Stadium like so much brilliant sunshine in winter. So it was somewhat heartening for the Revs players, officials and fans to see Chicago clinch a playoff spot Thursday with a win against Chivas USA.
It's welcome news because the Revolution cannot finish in any kind of tiebreaker with the Fire now. (The Revs would have been in an unfavorable position in any such tiebreakers.)
It was also welcome news because Columbus clinched the Supporters' Shield. That increases the chances that Columbus rests more starters on Sunday when the teams meet at Crew Stadium. The Revs need a win, or at the very least a draw.
Calculations from the blizzard of head-spinning tiebreakers aren't overly kind to the Revs. In other words, Steve Nicol's side would fall short in most two-, three- or four-team tiebreakers. So for the proud Revs to take that playoff streak one more season, a win in Crew-ville is essential to slanting the odds.
Even if Columbus has slightly less to play for now, it won't be easy for the Revolution. First, this same Crew side defeated New England two weeks ago at Gillette -- and did so without several starters.
Crew manager Robert Warzycha could well decide to rest some starters once again; most of the first-choice selections left it all out there in a scrappy, midweek 1-1 draw with Puerto Rico, a result that clinched a spot for Columbus in the CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinals.
So, the table is set for a Revs shot at success -- probably. There is also a slightly dispiriting possibility that all matters will be decided by the time Nicol's side kicks off against the Crew on Sunday afternoon.
And something else hovers about the Revs' camp: questions of what this team can truly do in the postseason. For all of Shalrie Joseph's heroics and all the spunk a young backline has shown, New England hasn't looked much like a playoff side lately, gathering just six of a possible 24 points since August.
So in the Revs' case, there's a bonus question attached to the larger question about whether they can find their way into the postseason: can New England cope once it gets there?
4. Can FC Dallas make it?: Around the country, so much seems to center on Jeff Cunningham and his electric form over the second half of the season. Upon closer inspection, Cunningham's exploits might be equal parts swell form and beneficiary of a side that's finally found its bearings -- certainly on the attack.
In fact, Cunningham missed numerous opportunities last week as Dallas hounded the Rapids goal but could manage just a 2-1 win, its fourth consecutive victory. Cunningham has surely contributed the Red Stripes' wave for late-season success, and he may well emerge from the weekend with a Golden Boot in hand.
But so much of the attacking might at the moment is about David Ferreira's found form. And it's about Dave van den Bergh's continued smart service, as he's now is second in league assists with 11. And it's about Dax McCarty's reliable work as an energy provider and distributor, as so many of FCD goals lately go through the young midfielder.
None of that is likely to matter, however, if Schellas Hyndham's team can't go into Qwest Field and get a win Saturday. Like so many of the other pursuers, Dallas could sneak in with a tie, but the odds become significantly more favorable with a victory.
Things got just a bit dicier for FCD with Chicago's win. That leaves the West wide open -- still! -- at the top, with Houston, Los Angeles, Chivas USA and Seattle all still eligible to claim the conference crown and home-field advantage. So Sigi Schmid and Co. has more motivation to play the starters now, which sharpens the knife aimed at Dallas.
On the other hand, if the team from north Texas can get in -- well, watch out. This playoff race, wild, woolly and compelling as it has been, has hardly summoned the best from some teams. Dallas is the exception among the teams still involved, and who could relish a date against a side averaging 2.5 goals a game since August? (Kudos to Kansas City and San Jose, too, for getting it more right than wrong near the end, although it wasn't enough for those teams to remain relevant through Round 32.)
5. Can D.C. United make it?: United manager Tom Soehn rested some essential starters in the midweek CONCACAF Champions League match. In the end it proved the correct decision, for United got the result it needed in the regional competition -- and then it didn't matter anyway as other results didn't go the RFK gang's way.
So now the troops are relatively fresh for Saturday's big match at the tight CommunityAmerica grounds.
Like New England, many of the tiebreaker scenarios don't favor United in the case of multiple wins by the remaining playoff pursuers. So United will be hunting for a win, then rooting for home teams elsewhere.
But getting that "W" is quite tricky, and it's something that's rarely been accomplished away from RFK this year (twice to be exact). And like New England, we could ask some similar questions about this team being playoff-worthy. United are seated on such a precarious perch because they have lost three of their last four home matches. Injuries have surely been a drain, but there's just no way to positively spin the collection of just three points from a possible 12 points at home over the last month.
On the other hand, the Black-and-Red's gritty effort last week in a 1-0 win against Columbus was encouraging. It will surely take a similarly focused, stuck-in effort against Kansas City. Because Kansas City's elimination from contention had everything to do with awful summer form rather than above-average form through September and early October.
D.C. United have won seven of the last 11 meetings between the teams lately, but the pressure and the home team's spunk of late will make things tough on United.
"I think the key the last two games, guys are just willing to battle," goalkeeper Steve Cronin told The (Washington) Examiner.
5a. Can Real Salt Lake make it?: OK, The Fiver cheated a little. This week it's a more of a "Sixer."
Of the remaining playoff aspirants, Jason Kreis' side faces the toughest odds. And they must sort through a certain amount of emotional wreckage, the potentially debilitating disappointment of last week's 1-0 setback in Toronto, one that left the playoff chase in tatters.
While some other sides could elbow their way in with a tie, only a win will do for the home side at Rio Tinto. So the odds are somewhat grim. Essentially, three from the above four tied on 39 would have to lose; the Kreis-men still have to win.
Even if RSL can't leapfrog enough of the others, wouldn't the men of Utah love to sideswipe their Rocky Mountain rival's playoff hopes?
"We got nothing to lose," RSL midfielder Will Johnson said. "We'll put it all out on the field Saturday. We've got a great game to look forward to. Guys are excited about it. We'll do what we can and we'll see what happens. That's all we can do."
There's a lot of that going around in MLS right now.
Steve Davis is a freelance writer who has covered Major League Soccer since its inception. Steve writes for www.DailySoccerFix.com and can be reached at BigTexSoccer@yahoo.com. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author's, and not necessarily those of Major League Soccer or MLSnet.com.
