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Who's the new MLS Cup favorite? FiveThirtyEight's projections say Seattle, Sporting KC

Now that the Supporters' Shield-winning Philadelphia Union are out of the Audi 2020 MLS Cup Playoffs and Round One is over, the latest FiveThirtyEight odds predict that this year's MLS Cup champion will emerge from the Western Conference.

Sporting Kansas City and the Seattle Sounders are both given 23% odds to lift the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy, with the clubs possibly meeting in the Western Conference final Dec. 6. But first they must advance through the Western Conference Semifinals, with Seattle (No. 2 seed) hosting FC Dallas on Dec. 1 (9:30 pm ET | TV & streaming info) and SKC (N0. 1 seed) hosting Minnesota United FC on Dec. 2 (9 pm ET | TV & streaming info).

If Seattle go the distance, it’d be their third MLS Cup victory in five years after previous triumphs in 2016 and 2019. Sporting, meanwhile, last won MLS Cup in 2013 and emerged victorious in 2000 when they were known as the Kansas City Wizards.

But double-digit odds can also be found via the Eastern Conference’s highest remaining seeds, with Columbus Crew SC given 17% odds and Orlando City SC given 14% odds. They’re both hosting Eastern Conference Semifinal games on Sunday, with Columbus (No. 3 seed) meeting Nashville SC at 8 pm ET and Orlando (No. 4 seed) facing the New England Revolution at 3 pm ET.

With only eight of 26 teams across MLS still left competing, here’s how the entire MLS Cup Playoffs field looks in the eyes of the stat gurus at FiveThirtyEight. We’ve already seen a few upsets, so maybe a couple more are in store?

FiveThirtyEight's MLS Cup odds

Ranking Team Odds (percentage)
1 Sporting Kansas City 23%
2 Seattle Sounders 23%
3 Columbus Crew SC 17%
4 Orlando City SC 14%
5 New England Revolution 7%
6 Minnesota United FC 6%
7 Nashville SC 5%
8 FC Dallas 5%