David Villa - New York City FC - Fantasy

MLS Fantasy: Who's the best value for points off of total shots?

Reid and Mike are joined by special Patreon guest Sherry Snyder to review the top fantasy points from Round 27 and preview all of the games from Round 28. Everyone also gives their opinion on the value of Atlanta players as they start their big run of doublegame weeks, and we learn the secret to Patreon listner team building success.

Goals and assists get the attention, but a good area for MLS Fantasy managers to get a leg up on their competition is shots. Bonus points from shots are very valuable to the savvy manager. As we begin the final six rounds of the 2017 Fantasy season, I thought it would be a good time to review which players are generating the most points from their shots relative to their price.

Total Shots

Let's start with the top 15 shot takers from all positions.

Player Club Pos Mins G Shots
Sebastian Giovinco TOR F 1877 15 116
David Villa NYC F 2155 19 112
Nemanja Nikolic CHI F 2422 17 92
Maxi Urruti DAL F 2211 12 89
Clint Dempsey SEA M 1767 11 85
Joao Plata RSL F 1903 7 78
Diego Valeri POR M 2379 17 78
Ola Kamara CLB F 2417 15 77
Romain Alessandrini LA M 1856 9 75
Carlos Rivas ORL M 1838 5 74
Bradley Wright-Phillips NY F 2175 15 74
Kei Kamara NE F 1973 11 72
Fredy Montero VAN F 1980 11 72
Sebastian Blanco POR M 2339 5 69
Miguel Almiron ATL M 2089 8 68

There are few surprises in this list, with the one exception possibly being Miguel Almiron ranking at the bottom of the table. Still, it’s basically a who’s who of top fantasy point earners. Also I think it’s important to point out that the only two players who currently have one 100+ shots are the No. 1 and No. 2 most expensive players in the game. But are they worth it?

Shot points per million

Now let’s see how the top 15 changes when we look at total points generated by shots and account for price. To get this number, I added the total number of bonus points each of the top 25 players have earned from their shots to the number of points from goals scored. I then divided this number by each player’s price to get their shot points per million.

Player Club Pos Mins G Shots SOG SOG% Fantasy Price (Millions) Shot Points/Million
Nemanja Nikolic CHI F 2422 17 92 44 47.8 10.3 9.42
David Villa NYC F 2155 19 112 44 39.3 12.3 9.27
Erick Torres HOU F 1740 14 65 24 36.9 8.7 9.08
Ola Kamara CLB F 2417 15 77 33 42.9 10.7 7.94
Diego Valeri POR M 2379 17 78 32 41 11.8 7.88
Bradley Wright-Phillips NY F 2175 15 74 31 41.9 10.7 7.85
Maxi Urruti DAL F 2211 12 89 35 39.3 9.5 7.68
David Accam CHI M 1855 14 56 33 58.9 10.2 7.25
Chris Wondolowski SJ F 2501 11 58 21 36.2 8.4 7.02
Sebastian Giovinco TOR F 1877 15 116 47 40.5 13.4 6.94
Ignacio Piatti MTL M 1828 15 57 31 54.4 11.7 6.84
Fredy Montero VAN F 1980 11 72 26 36.1 9.2 6.74
Clint Dempsey SEA M 1767 11 85 28 32.9 10.1 6.73
Jozy Altidore TOR F 1932 13 61 26 42.6 10.5 6.67
Fanendo Adi POR F 1885 10 66 28 42.4 9.3 6.45

Nemanja Nikolic and David Villa stay in the top three of this new table but Sebastian Giovinco plummets down to 10th due to his high price. He is replaced by Erick Torres, who has been preforming much better than his sub-$9 million price tag would suggest. Other notable absences include Romain Alessandrini and Miguel Almiron.

The steep drop stating at fourth place makes me question the value of every player outside of the top three. Of course, this chart just looks are points from shots and many of these players generate significant and consistent points in other areas. The top three are the only players earning 9+ shot points per million dollars of player value, so if you’re looking for a pure goal scoring machine, then it’s clear that these three are worth their price tag. 

Note: Almiron will start a long run of home games in Round 28 so he could jump up the list is he starts finding the net again.

Who do you think is worth every fantasy penny of their transfer cost? Let us know in the comments below!

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