The Eastern Conference title is still mostly up for grabs, but the West has been all but won.
That's the upshot of FiveThirtyEight's updated MLS predictions in the wake of Tuesday's Conference Championships first-leg doubleheader.
After both favored sides earned encouraging results in the away legs, the latest precentages from the renowned number-crunching outfit still point to a Toronto FC-Seattle Sounders rematch in this year's MLS Cup.
The 0-0 draw between TFC and Columbus Crew SC at MAPFRE Stadium leaves both sides more or less where they were entering the series. The Reds are 65 percent likely to advance to, and host, a second straight cup final while underdogs Crew SC have a tough but not impossible shot around 35 percent. TFC are projected as the team likeliest to win it all, at 43 percent, compared to 19 percent for Columbus.
FiveThirtyEight's outlook for the Houston Dynamo is far, far grimmer: The Dynamo have a mere 3 percent chance of overcoming the 2-0 home loss Seattle inflicted on them, putting the Sounders at a hale and healthy 97 percent likely to reach the final. The Rave Green carry a 37 percent chance of hoisting MLS Cup for a second straight season.