Cory Burke - Philadelphia Union - goal celebration
USA Today Sports Images

Which team will win MLS Cup? Philadelphia Union lead FiveThirtyEight's projections

Could the Philadelphia Union soon add an MLS Cup to their trophy case? They’re favored to accomplish exactly that, according to FiveThirtyEight's updated projections now that the Audi 2020 MLS Cup Playoffs field is set.

The Union are given 25% odds, which comes shortly after they locked up the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed and lifted the Supporters’ Shield, the club’s first piece of silverware since entering MLS as an expansion team in 2010. 

Should the Union complete the double, they'd be the first MLS team to win both trophies since Toronto FC in 2017. As for other recent Shield winners, the New York Red Bulls (2018) and LAFC (2019) both fell in their respective conference finals.

The only other Eastern Conference team with double-digit odds to lift MLS Cup is New York City FC (12%), the conference’s No. 5 seed. As for Western Conference teams with double-digit odds, No. 2 Seattle have 11% odds and No. 1 Sporting Kansas City have 10% odds.

Those hoping for a 2019 MLS Cup rematch between Toronto and Seattle, and the fourth such meeting in the last five years? That might be further off, since the Reds are given just 6% odds of winning MLS Cup.

Here’s the rundown of each team’s odds before the playoffs get underway with Eastern Conference Play-In Round game Nov. 20, building to MLS Cup on Dec. 12. You can check out FiveThirtyEight's full rundown here, too.

FiveThirtyEight's MLS Cup odds

Ranking Team Odds (percentage)
1 Philadelphia Union 25%
2 New York City FC 12%
3 Seattle Sounders 11%
4 Sporting Kansas City 10%
5 LAFC 8%
6 Toronto FC 6%
7 Columbus Crew SC 4%
8 Portland Timbers 4%
9 Orlando City SC 4%
10 Colorado Rapids 3%
11 Minnesota United FC 3%
12 FC Dallas 2%
13 New England Revolution 2%
14 New York Red Bulls 2%
15 Inter Miami CF 1%
16 Nashville SC <1%
17 San Jose Earthquakes <1%
18 Montreal Impact <1%