Philadelphia Union - Santos - points to head while celebrating

MLS is Back Tournament FiveThirtyEight projections: Which team will win it all in Orlando?

With tournament favorites LAFC getting knocked out of the MLS is Back tournament quarterfinals, there's a new favorite according to FiveThirtyEight.

Heading into their quarterfinal matchup, LAFC were given the best chance to win it all at 32%. Now the top spot is taken by the Philadelphia Union, who advanced to the semifinals after an impressive 3-1 quarterfinal victory over Sporting Kansas City. The Union are now pegged with a 31% chance to win the final. 

Behind Philly at the No. 2 spot is the team that have labeled themselves as the underdogs throughout the tournament: Minnesota United FC. Right behind them are their semifinal foes — Orlando City SC — who are joined by the Portland Timbers at 21% after their quarterfinal win over NYCFC.

FiveThirtyEight Projections: Tournament winner (as of August 2, 12:30 am ET)

  1. Philadelphia Union - 31%
  2. Minnesota United FC - 27%
  3. Orlando City - 21%
  4. Portland Timbers - 21%
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