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FiveThirtyEight: Just how dire is the New York Red Bulls' situation?

Suffice to say, the New York Red Bulls didn't exactly play out an ideal first leg against Atlanta United in the Eastern Conference Championship.

Atlanta cruised to a 3-0 victory, inching them closer to hosting MLS Cup. What chances do our friends at FiveThirtyEight give the Red Bulls to rescue their MLS Cup hopes? 

Not great. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Red Bulls have just a 6 percent chance of overturning their three-goal deficit and advancing. They need to win 3-0 to force overtime, 4-0 (or better) to win in 90 minutes. If Atlanta score once, RBNY will need to put five past Brad Guzan and co. to overcome the away goals tiebreaker.

But, for context, that 6 percentt chance is similar to another high profile soccer moment in this country. 

There's always a chance. And, if the Red Bulls can pull themselves out of the hole, this moment will go in Atlanta sports infamy, right next to 28-3.

It's more equal in the West, thought though FiveThirtyEight sees a clear favorite. Heading to Children's Mercy Park at 0-0, Sporting Kansas City have a 67 percent chance of advancing to MLS Cup over the Portland Timbers. While Portland were unable to take a lead into Leg 2, they at least kept SKC from getting a valuable away goal. An SKC win puts them in the final; A goalless draw sends the game to extra time; A draw with goals or Portland wins sees the Timbers advance to the final.

On Thursday, the Red Bulls host Atlanta (7:30 pm ET | FS1, TSN, TVAS) followed by SKC vs. Portland (9:30 pm ET | ESPN, ESPN Deportes, TSN, TVAS) to decide what the matchup for 2018 MLS Cup will be.