Not great. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Red Bulls have just a 6 percent chance of overturning their three-goal deficit and advancing. They need to win 3-0 to force overtime, 4-0 (or better) to win in 90 minutes. If Atlanta score once, RBNY will need to put five past Brad Guzan and co. to overcome the away goals tiebreaker.
But, for context, that 6 percentt chance is similar to another high profile soccer moment in this country.
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There's always a chance. And, if the Red Bulls can pull themselves out of the hole, this moment will go in Atlanta sports infamy, right next to 28-3.
It's more equal in the West, thought though FiveThirtyEight sees a clear favorite. Heading to Children's Mercy Park at 0-0, Sporting Kansas City have a 67 percent chance of advancing to MLS Cup over the Portland Timbers. While Portland were unable to take a lead into Leg 2, they at least kept SKC from getting a valuable away goal. An SKC win puts them in the final; A goalless draw sends the game to extra time; A draw with goals or Portland wins sees the Timbers advance to the final.
On Thursday, the Red Bulls host Atlanta (7:30 pm ET | FS1, TSN, TVAS) followed by SKC vs. Portland (9:30 pm ET | ESPN, ESPN Deportes, TSN, TVAS) to decide what the matchup for 2018 MLS Cup will be.