World Cup Qualifying scenarios: How US, Canada can advance to the Hex

Christian Pulisic for USMNT

An action-packed Friday of World Cup Qualifying has come and gone, with plenty of fireworks on the field and these results: USMNT winning 6-0 over St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and CanMNT falling 2-1 to Honduras.


So how's it looking for each team's prospects of making it to the Hexagonal, the final step in qualifying for Russia in 2018? Let's break down scenarios for each one.


Here's how the US can qualify for the Hex:


  • While the USMNT defeated St. Vincent and the Grenadines by a hefty margin, Trinidad and Tobago, the other top team in Group C, drew against Guatemala 2-2. While T&T's berth in the Hex is sealed, this makes things a tiny bit trickier for USMNT.
  • On Tuesday, the US will host the Soca Warriors in Jacksonville. If they win, they'll also ensure a berth in the Hex.
  • If the US lose, then Guatemala's faint hopes of advancing continue. However, for that to happen, not only would T&T have to beat the US, but Guatemala would also have to beat St. Vincent. At that point, goal differential would come into play.
  • The US currently holds a +13 to +1 goal differential advantage over Guatemala. In other words, unless there are epic blowouts all around on Tuesday, it's looking pretty decent for the US.


Let's move on to Canada. Our own Daniel Squizzato did a great job breaking down Friday's result against Honduras, and what it means for CanMNT, but here it is in a nutshell:


  • Canada needs to beat El Salvador on Tuesday, and Mexico needs to beat Honduras, by a total six-goal swing. In other words, 3-0 and 3-0 (and so on) results could do the trick. It's a long shot, but maybe Canada could scrap it out to come out ahead, and Mexico could blow out Honduras with a clean sheet.