2017 MLS ball close-up - adidas Nativo

We're in the home stretch of the 2017 season and teams are battling to get above the playoff line.


We know who's above and below it according to the current standings, but given the fact that teams have played a differing amount of games and have different strengths of schedule, it would be better to look at some different numbers to try and determine who has the best chance of reaching the Audi 2017 MLS Cup Playoffs.


FiveThirtyEight.com provides those numbers using forecasts and SPI ratings, which you can read more about here. If you want to see your team's odds to get a first-round bye, win Supporters' Shield or win MLS Cup, you can find out here.


Those numbers are updated live shortly after a game is completed.


Below, you can find the probability that your team will reach the playoffs.


Eastern Conference


  1. Toronto FC - >99%
  2. New York City FC - >99%
  3. New York Red Bulls - 90%
  4. Chicago Fire - 89%
  5. Atlanta United - 88%
  6. Columbus Crew SC - 82%
  7. Montreal Impact - 38%
  8. New England Revolution - 9%
  9. Orlando City SC - 2%
  10. Philadelphia Union - 2%
  11. D.C. United - <1%


Western Conference


  1. Seattle Sounders - 98%
  2. Sporting Kansas City - 97%
  3. Houston Dynamo - 91%
  4. Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 90%
  5. Portland Timbers - 89%
  6. FC Dallas - 79%
  7. San Jose Earthquakes - 30%
  8. Real Salt Lake - 25%
  9. Minnesota United FC - <1%
  10. LA Galaxy - <1%
  11. Colorado Rapids - <1%