Heading into their quarterfinal matchup, LAFC were given the best chance to win it all at 32%. Now the top spot is taken by the Philadelphia Union, who advanced to the semifinals after an impressive 3-1 quarterfinal victory over Sporting Kansas City. The Union are now pegged with a 31% chance to win the final.
Behind Philly at the No. 2 spot is the team that have labeled themselves as the underdogs throughout the tournament: Minnesota United FC. Right behind them are their semifinal foes — Orlando City SC — who are joined by the Portland Timbers at 21% after their quarterfinal win over NYCFC.
FiveThirtyEight Projections: Tournament winner (as of August 2, 12:30 am ET)
- Philadelphia Union - 31%
- Minnesota United FC - 27%
- Orlando City - 21%
- Portland Timbers - 21%