How the USMNT can secure a top-three finish in the Hexagonal

Kellyn Acosta, Romell Quioto- USA, Honduras - Close up

There is no getting around it: The US national team are in a tricky spot heading into their final two World Cup qualifiers.


A Sept. 1 loss to Costa Rica and a draw at Honduras four days later left the Americans in fourth in the CONCACAF Hexagonal standings, one point behind Panama â€“ whom they face on Friday (7:30 pm ET; ESPN2, Univision, UDN) – for the region’s third and final automatic World Cup place:

PTS
W
L
D
GF
GA
GD
<a href="/meta/club/mexico">Mexico</a>&nbsp;- x
18
5
0
3
11
3
+8
Costa Rica
15
4
1
3
12
5
+7
Panama
10
2
2
4
7
5
+2
<a href="/meta/club/united-states">United States</a>
9
2
3
3
12
11
+1
Honduras
9
2
3
3
9
16
-7
Trinidad &amp; Tobago
3
1
7
0
4
15
-11

A fourth-place finish and the attendant intercontinental World Cup playoff against Australia or Syria is a real possibility. A fifth-place finish and missing Russia entirely is less likely, but still feasible.


Of course, the US do have several paths to finishing in the top-three. Here are the scenarios in which they'd clinch a spot in Russia following their final Hex matches against Panama and then at Trinidad & Tobago on Oct. 10:


US win both remaining matches


If the US defeat Panama and Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:


  • Honduras lose/draw one of their remaining matches at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10


OR…

  • Honduras win at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10, but don’t catch the US in goal difference (HON GD: -7; US GD: +1)


OR…

  • Costa Rica lose vs. Honduras on Oct. 5 and at Panama on Oct. 10


US win vs. Panama, draw at Trinidad & Tobago


If the US win vs. Panama and draw at Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:


  • Honduras earn fewer than four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
  • AND…
  • Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10 or win but fail to catch the US on goal difference (PAN GD: +2; US GD: +1)


OR…

  • Honduras earn four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10 but don’t catch the US in goal difference
  • AND…
  • Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10 or win but fail to catch the US on goal difference (PAN GD: +2; US GD: +1)


US draw vs. Panama, win at Trinidad & Tobago


If the US draw vs. Panama and win at Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:


  • Honduras earn fewer than four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
  • AND…
  • Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10


OR…

  • Honduras earn four points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10 but don’t catch the US in goal difference
  • AND…
  • Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10



    US win vs. Panama, lose at Trinidad & Tobago


    If the US beat Panama and lose at Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:


    • Honduras earn fewer than three points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
    • AND…
    • Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10


    OR…

    • Honduras earn three points at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10 but don’t catch the US in goal difference
    • AND…
    • Panama lose/draw vs. Costa Rica on Oct. 10


    US draw both matches


    If the US draw both Panama and Trinidad & Tobago, they’ll finish in the top-three of the Hex if:


    • Honduras earn two points or fewer at Costa Rica on Oct. 5 and vs. Mexico on Oct. 10
    • AND…
    • Panama lose their final match and don't pass the US in goals scored


    The US cannot finish in the top-three if they lose vs. Panama, draw vs. Panama but lose at Trinidad & Tobago, or if they lose both matches.