FiveThirtyEight: Toronto FC’s Supporters’ Shield chances greater than 50 percent

Alejandro Pozuelo on the ball vs. FC Cincinnati

Toronto FC keeps winning and their odds to win a second Supporters’ Shield continues to increase, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight projections.

A 1-0 victory over FC Cincinnati at Nippert Stadium Sunday was the club’s fifth in a row and extended an unbeaten streak to seven games. Greg Vanney’s side also became the first MLS team to clinch a berth in the 2020 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.

After doubling their chances to 40 percent after a midweek win over the New England Revolution, Toronto FC’s odds are now 51 percent to win the Supporters’ Shield.

Toronto FC’s lead in the race is three points ahead of the Philadelphia Union, who are given the second-best chances by FiveThirtyEight at 18 percent following a 2-1 win over the Montreal Impact. The Seattle Sounders, still the favorite to win another MLS Cup, dropped to third in the Shield projections after a 3-1 loss to LAFC.

Seattle’s odds to win MLS Cup didn’t change week to week and the Rave Green are still the favorites at 15 percent. Toronto FC ticked slightly up to 14 percent from 13 a week ago. LAFC and the Union were unchanged, while NYCFC’s odds for a first Cup went from 9 percent to 7 after a home loss to the Revolution.

Check out the full projections here, and digest the current Shield and MLS Cup favorites below:

FiveThirtyEight: Projected Supporters' Shield Chances

  1. Toronto FC - 51%
  2. Seattle Sounders - 18%
  3. Philadelphia Union - 13%
  4. Columbus Crew SC - 8%
  5. Orlando City SC - 4%

FiveThirtyEight: Projected MLS Cup Chances

  1. Seattle Sounders - 15%
  2. Toronto FC - 14%
  3. LAFC - 11%
  4. Philadelphia Union - 10%
  5. New York City FC - 7%