LAFC, Toronto FC, and Columbus Crew SC are all among the favorites to win MLS Cup, while the Seattle Sounders retain their spot at the top according to the latest projections from the stats gurus at FiveThirtyEight.
It's the second straight round of projections that have Seattle with the highest odds to take home the league title, as the Sounders moved up from 13% to 14%. After a four-way tie that also included Columbus and Philadelphia at 11% last week, LAFC and Toronto also saw their Cup odds bump up 1% to 12% each, with the Crew and Union right behind at 10% and 9% respectively.
While the Sounders are title favorites, it's Columbus that still has the best chance at taking home the Supporters' Shield according to the projections, which have Caleb Porter's group at a 33% to take home the honors as the top regular-season team. That comes despite a loss to Toronto, followed by a draw at Dallas on a day when TFC went on to win again. Seattle did see their Shield chances increase, though, up to 25% from 15% after their 3-1 win over the Vancouver Whitecaps. Toronto are listed at 20% for the Shield, followed by Philadelphia at 11% and Orlando City at 6%.
FiveThirtyEight: Projected MLS Cup Chances
- Seattle Sounders - 14%
- LAFC - 12%
- Toronto FC - 12%
- Columbus Crew SC - 10%
- Philadelphia Union - 9%
FiveThirtyEight: Projected Supporters' Shield Chances
- Columbus Crew SC - 33%
- Seattle Sounders - 25%
- Toronto FC - 20%
- Philadelphia Union - 11%
- Orlando City SC - 6%