MLS Cup - closeup shot - 2018

FiveThirtyEight released their probabilities for the 2019 season of Major League Soccer, including who has the strongest team, who is likeliest to make the playoffs and win MLS Cup.


According to FiveThirtyEight, Atlanta United are favorites to repeat as MLS Cup champs at 16 percent, narrowly ahead of the New York Red Bulls (14%) and Sporting Kansas City (11%). Those three clubs are near-locks for the playoffs, with ATL and RBNY at 90 percent and SKC at 87 percent.


Atlanta are rated the strongest squad with the Red Bulls second strongest. ATL have the best attack and Red Bulls the best defense, according to FiveThirtyEight.


Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight give D.C. United the eighth-best chances of making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, behind the Montreal Impact and Philadelphia Union. The simulation also fancies the chances of Toronto FC, giving them a 70% shot at the playoffs.


Out in the Western Conference, the LA Galaxy are expected by FiveThirtyEight to end their two-year postseason drought with the Houston Dynamo narrowly missing out. The simulations also see Minnesota United missing out as well.


The revamped Colorado Rapids are judged by FiveThirtyEight to have the longest shot to make the playoffs at just 15%, with Orlando City (23%) and FC Cincinnati (25%) also facing steep climbs.


FiveThirtyEight's MLS Week 1 probabilities:


Philadelphia50% win
Toronto FC27% win
Draw23%


Orlando34% win
NYCFC42% win
Draw25%


Columbus43% win
NY Red Bulls29% win
Draw29%


FC Dallas56% win
New England20% win
Draw24%


Houston48% win
Real Salt Lake28% win
Draw23%


Colorado32% win
Portland42% win
Draw26%


Vancouver53% win
Minnesota25% win
Draw21%


LA Galaxy60% win
Chicago20% win
Draw21%


San Jose40% win
Montreal35% win
Draw25%


Seattle66% win
Cincinnati12% win
Draw22%


D.C. United38% win
Atlanta36% win
Draw26%


LAFC47% win
Sporting KC29% win
Draw24%