TFC fell 4-2 to LAFC at home this weekend after losing to Portland midweek 2-0 on the road, and are now nine points below the playoff line. Meanwhile, the Galaxy were routed 6-2 by Real Salt Lake in Utah this weekend, also severely hindering their playoff chances.
According to FiveThirtyEight, TFC now have just a 5 percent chance of making the playoffs (down from 23 percent last week) while the Galaxy have fallen to 13 percent (from 31 percent).
On the other end of those results, RSL boosted their postseason likelihood to 85 percent, and LAFC clawed up to 42 percent probability of nabbing a first-round bye.
With a 2-1 win over San Jose, the Vancouver Whitecaps remain within reach of the playoffs, hovering at 31 percent probability while hanging one point behind both Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers.
D.C.’s 3-1 win over Atlanta United on Sunday kept United on pace with the Montreal Impact for the East’s final playoff spot despite a midweek loss to Philadelphia. D.C. have a 47 percent probability to make the playoffs, while Montreal are at 46 percent.
The Impact secured a huge 3-0 win against the New York Red Bulls, who became the first team to clinch a playoff berth despite the loss. New York still lead the Supporters’ Shield race, though FiveThirtyEight gives ATL a 57 percent probability to take home the Shield.