Heineken Rivalry Week delivered in shaking up the race for playoff places, seeding and the Supporters' Shield.
After a jam-packed week, FiveThirtyEight projects there are seven teams with a 95 percent chance or better to make the playoffs. As for the other five spots? Well, that'll likely change week-by-week until Decision Day. A few more places became more clear with the latest results.
As of this week, FiveThirtyEight projects Real Salt Lake and Portland Timbers will grab the final two playoff places in the Western Conference while Philadelphia Union and D.C. United have the best shot at finishing 5th and 6th in the East. The Union's 1-0 win over New England dropped the Revs' chances to 12 percent, under Montreal (27 percent) and Toronto FC (23 percent).
In the West, Salt Lake's 6-0 rout of the Colorado Rapids was a big result in the eyes of the simulation, as RSL's playoff chances jumped to 77 percent from 57 percent. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and LA Galaxy are down to 31 percent after their 1-1 draw with LAFC. RSL and LA face each other on Saturday night (10 pm ET | TV & streaming info).
Seattle's 1-0 win over the Timbers in Portland has given the surging Sounders an 88 percent probability to make the playoffs, while the Timbers' likelihood fell to 78 percent.
As for the race for first-round byes, the current top two in each conference are strongly favored to remain there throughout the end of the season.
The New York Red Bulls' 1-1 draw against NYCFC and 1-0 win over D.C. United solidified their probability to finish in the East's top two up to 80 percent from 70 percent. Atlanta's 2-1 win against Orlando brought their probability to 90 percent and their likelihood to win the Supporters' Shield to 56 percent, with the Red Bulls as the second most likely with 34 percent. In the West, SKC (72 percent) and FC Dallas (67 percent) are most likely to hold down a first-round bye, with LAFC (26 percent), Seattle (17 percent) and Portland (12 percent) also in the mix.
