SUBSCRIBE TO EXTRATIME RADIO:iTunes | Stitcher | RSS FEED | DOWNLOAD
Time for the second leg of the Conference semifinals of the Audi 2016 MLS Cup Playoffs. You're almost certainly skipping over this part because you want to get to the games. I don't blame you.
Colorado Rapids vs. LA Galaxy
The Galaxy mostly dominated Leg 1, but that didn't exactly show up on the scoreboard. A 1-0 lead is better than a 2-1 lead, or any sort of draw, but it's not the type of breathing room that they probably wanted heading into Commerce City for Leg 2 (2 pm ET; ESPN & ESPN Deportes in the US | TSN5 in Canada).
LA came out once again in that 4-4-2 that they're calling a 4-2-3-1, and might actually be better described as a 4-4-1-1 with Alan Gordon as the lead "1" and Gio Dos Santos as the "1" just underneath. You may think I'm being unnecessarily pedantic here, but Dos Santos's involvement is always tricky and hard to categorize. He's a goalscorer and a playmaker who never gets a ton of the ball even though he drops deep, but he can also burst through the lines, and while he's a devastating 1v1 player he's much better central than he is on the wing.
Ok, you know what? That's not actually that hard to categorize. Dude's a stone-cold second forward, and so I'm going to call the Galaxy's Leg 1 lineup a 4-4-2 even though they called it a 4-2-3-1. I expect them to show the same in the second leg as well.
The Rapids, meanwhile, played their usual 4-2-3-1, but with some of the pieces mixed around. Dominique Badji was inverted on the left and Shklezen Gashi inverted on the right, while Dillon Powers started as a No. 10 before being subbed for Jermaine Jones at the half.
Here's the problem with the words I just typed, from a Colorado point of view: If both of your wingers are inverted, and you're not going to push your fullbacks up on the overlap (which they didn't), your attack is going to lack any sort of width. Which it did.
And that left it to individuals playing hero ball to try to create dangerous moments. Credit to Jones for doing exactly that – he lives and dies for that kind of game. But it's not exactly a high-percentage proposition.
The Shape of the Game: LA try to dictate from central midfield
This is a network passing graph from Leg 1, made using Opta data:
Each circle represents the location of each player's aggregate touch, and the thickness of the lines connecting them represents the number of passes they exchanged back and forth (minimum of five passes for a line to show up).
Those lines usually aren't that thick. The connection on the right side between Robbie Rogers (No. 14) and Landon Donovan (No. 26) is particularly strong, which you probably instantly noticed. More important from Colorado's point of view: The connection from Baggio Husidic (No. 6) and Sebastian Lletget (No. 17) in central midfield to literally everyone.
Through 180 playoff minutes, neither guy has really put a foot wrong. Whether it's Jones starting as the Colorado No. 10 or Powers (it'll be Jones), that position has to be conceptualized as a defensive one first and foremost – a forward-leaning destroyer who can get the Galaxy midfield out of their passing rhythm.
If that doesn't happen, here's the chain of events:
- Colorado, desperate for an equalizer, start pushing their fullbacks higher
- Donovan, recognizing this, stops helping to the middle and instead flares wide behind Marc Burch
- LA score a goal
- End of line
The Rapids have to make this game miserable for LA. If it's not that, then the Rapids have no shot at advancing.
PROBABLE LINEUPS
Colorado (4-2-3-1):Tim Howard; Eric Miller, Jared Watts, Axel Sjoberg, Burch; Micheal Azira, Sam Cronin; Marlon Hairston, Jones, Gashi; Kevin Doyle
LA (4-4-2):Brian Rowe; Rogers, Daniel Steres, Jelle Van Damme, Ashley Cole; Donovan, Husidic, Lletget, Emmanuel Boateng; Dos Santos, Gordon
What's it all mean?
The sheer number of times I've mentioned Jones should let you know how important I think he is to this game. Under the radar is the fact that Hairston is up there as well, especially since he has the wheels and smarts to get into space behind Cole (who won't be able to catch him). LA won't be overlapping all that much, but there will be opportunities.
There will also be set piece opportunities, which should favor the hosts.
Only way this game isn't a low-scoring scrap is if LA get an early goal. If that happens and the Rapids have to open up, this one could get out of hand. It would be a weird way for this Colorado season to end, but "weird" has been the operative word for 2016 MLS, so please promise me that you won't be too surprised if this one ends 5-4.
New York Red Bulls vs. Montreal Impact
This particular Leg 2 (4 pm ET; ESPN & ESPN Deportes in the US | TSN5 & RDS in Canada) goes to the issue of whether you believe in "clutch" or not. The numbers: Bradley Wright-Phillips had four goals in four games in the 2014 playoffs, and has one in five games since.
Too small a sample size to prove anything statistically, but it was BWP who hit the post four-and-a-half minutes into stoppage time in the second leg against Crew SC last year, a miss that was so dramatic/unbelievable that John Strong's call reached frequencies even dogs can't hear. And it was BWP who got in alone on Evan Bush last week inside three minutes but couldn't finish the breakaway, and it was BWP who had a clean look from six yards a minute into stoppage time but couldn't hit the target.
If you'd asked the Red Bulls before the game "will you accept a scenario in which you make no major defensive errors and BWP gets these two chances?" they'd have taken the deal. The fact is, however, that their MVP candidate did not finish.
With Montreal... I mean, they just have to repeat exactly what they did in Leg 1. Laurent Ciman and Victor Cabrera were monstrous in their own 18 and nobody committed any of the types of turnovers that fuel RBNY. When in doubt, boot it out is just fine even if it's not pretty.
The Shape of the Game: New York try to get around the edge
With Montreal sitting deep and doing everything in their power to prevent Sacha Kljestan from picking them apart through the middle, it's incumbent upon the New York wingers to actually start beating the Impact fullbacks off the dribble and then creating some separation. If and when that happens, it'll pull Cabrera and Ciman out to help, or one of the triumverate of central midfielders tasked with stopping Kljestan. If and when that happens, New York suddenly have room to play a little bit.
That chance Gonzalo Veron created at the end is the blueprint. If New York enter the break still chasing the game, he's got to be out there for half No. 2 and he's got to be in a position to repeatedly put dudes into the blender.
For Montreal...
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC
Ben Baer already broke down just how overwhelming TFC's pressure has been since they switched to the 3-5-2. Read that story to get an idea of what's being thrown at NYCFC, and what will likely be thrown at them again on Sunday (6:30 pm ET: FS1 & FOX Deportes in the US | TSN4 & TSN5 in Canada).
In short: New York City's strength all season has been their ability to build from the back. TFC took that away and clubbed them over the head with it. There's no reason to think the Reds won't do the same again.
The hosts just have to persevere, but here's the thing: Greg Vanney made two clever and overlooked subs late in Leg 1 when he took Jonathan Osorio off for Tosaint Ricketts, and then Sebastian Giovinco off for Marky Delgado. I'm sure this was in large part to rest Giovinco's legs and protect him from any sort of card, but it also added something NYCFC probably didn't expect: Two target men in the box.
City aren't equipped to deal with that, and it showed. As soon as Ricketts and Jozy Altidore were in the same neighborhood NYCFC unraveled, and that wasn't happenstance.
NYCFC can not afford to defend for 90, both because of the scoreline and because they're not built for it.
The Shape of the Game: NYCFC try to crack it open and make it wild
Does anyone really believe that NYCFC can shut Toronto out?
The answer is "no." And since TFC's getting at least one, that means NYCFC need at least four to advance (thanks to the magic of away goals). I have no way of diagramming how this might happen, and frankly I think this Toronto team is too good to concede four.
So instead of dropping in something relevant I'm going to instead give you highlights from 2015's 4-4 draw between these two teams at Yankee Stadium:
Wasn't that fun?
PROBABLE LINEUPS
NYCFC (4-3-3):Eirik Johansen; R.J. Allen, Frederic Brillant, Maxime Chanot, Ronald Matarrita; Andrea Pirlo, Andoni Iraola, Frank Lampard; Jack Harrison, David Villa, Tommy McNamara
TFC (3-5-2):Clint Irwin; Eriq Zavaleta, Drew Moor, Nick Hagglund; Steven Beitashour, Armando Cooper, Michael Bradley, Osorio, Justin Morrow; Giovinco, Altidore
What's it all mean?
Lots of health questions here: Pirlo missed last week, Lampard was only a sub, Villa was subbed out. McNamara might be in the doghouse, I guess? Who knows what Patrick Vieira will do in this situation.
As for TFC, the only real question is about the health of Beitashour. There have been rumors of a Mark Bloom sighting at right wingback, and Delgado can play there as well. This might all be smoke.
Regardless, nobody's come back from a 2-0 first leg deficit since 2004.
FC Dallas vs. Seattle Sounders
Oscar Pareja made a bad gamble and lost on it in Leg 1. This isn't about coming back from 3-0 down – it's simply not going to happen against a defense as good as Seattle's, even if they end up having to go without Roman Torres again.
This is about remembering that the game can't be outsmarted, but that it can be overthought. This was the second time in four playoff trips as manager that Pareja's done as much, and the hope in the FCD fanbase will be that he remembers this lesson come next postseason.
As for Seattle, on Thursday I wrote a bunch about what they've become under Brian Schmetzer. My guess is we'll see something close to what they were in Leg 1 come Sunday's Leg 2 (9 pm ET; FS1 & FOX Deportes in the US | TSN2 in Canada).
The Shape of the Game: Dallas pull their wingers inside and their fullbacks up
It's got to be the 4-2-3-1 with Mauro Rosales as the No. 10. Rosales's penchant for drifting out to the flanks here could be a really interesting wrinkle, as it would allow for some on-the-fly position swaps between him and Michael Barrios.
If you're a Dallas fan, you have to like the idea of Barrios getting inside and running directly at that Seattle central defense, none of whom is all that quick in space.
Does that mean Seattle will pull themselves deep and bunker? Maybe a little bit, but they shouldn't go all the way with that, because if they sit too deep they'll end up conceding a ton of set pieces, and if they concede a ton of set pieces they're absolutely begging Dallas to get back into this series. The Sounders have to play a little bit, and use Dallas's aggression as a way of slipping Jordan Morris past the defense and onto through balls from Nicolas Lodeiro.
PROBABLE LINEUPS
FC Dallas (4-2-3-1):Chris Seitz; Atiba Harris, Walker Zimmerman, Matt Hedges, Maynor Figueroa; Carlos Gruezo, Kellyn Acosta; Barrios, Rosales, Tesho Akindele; Maxi Urruti
Seattle (4-2-3-1): Stefan Frei; Tyrone Mears, Torres, Chad Marshall, Joevin Jones; Osvaldo Alonso, Cristian Roldan; Erik Friberg, Lodeiro, Morris; Nelson Valdez
What's it mean?
I have Akindele starting on the left side for Dallas because he's more of a goalscorer than the other option, Ryan Hollingshead. And I have Morris and Friberg on the wings because I don't think the other options for Seattle – Aaron Kovar and Brad Evans – are quite ready to go from the start. And I have Valdez up top because he is an unstoppable goal-scoring machine.
I actually think this game will be a lot of fun because there's comparatively little pressure.
One more thing:
RIP Vine.
Happy weekending, everyone.
